Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Jackson, KY

903 
WWUS53 KJKL 281230
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

KYC011-063-065-109-115-129-165-175-189-197-199-203-205-237-281300-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110228T1300Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-MORGAN KY-MENIFEE KY-JOHNSON KY-POWELL KY-
WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-LEE KY-JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
PULASKI KY-
730 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL PULASKI...NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE...NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY...
JACKSON...LEE...ESTILL...WOLFE...SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...MENIFEE...MORGAN...ELLIOTT...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EST...

AT 726 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF BRUIN TO CAMPTON
TO DANGO...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BEATTYVILLE...DEMUND...HEIDELBERG...ELKFORK...NICKELL...TURKEY
  FOOT...CROCKETT...PANAMA...BAPTIST...MALONE...CARYTON...SHOP
  BRANCH...DAYSBORO...NEW ZION...BELLE POINT...ELAMTON...VORTEX...
  GORDON FORD...CRESSMONT AND BANFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 8316 3817 8290 3812 8289 3801 8302
      3797 8300 3800 8293 3763 8346 3765 8352
      3757 8356 3737 8384 3733 8456 3735 8451
      3748 8447 3748 8438 3754 8436 3753 8421
      3757 8412 3765 8414 3769 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 270DEG 50KT 3819 8280 3775 8347
          3738 8407
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

737 
WWUS53 KJKL 281254
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

KYC011-063-065-109-115-129-165-175-189-197-199-203-205-237-281304-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110228T1300Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-MORGAN KY-MENIFEE KY-JOHNSON KY-POWELL KY-
WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-LEE KY-JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-
PULASKI KY-
754 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
PULASKI...NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE...NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY...JACKSON...
LEE...ESTILL...WOLFE...SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
JOHNSON...MENIFEE...MORGAN...ELLIOTT...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 AM EST...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST. 

LAT...LON 3826 8316 3817 8290 3812 8289 3801 8302
      3797 8300 3800 8293 3763 8346 3765 8352
      3757 8356 3737 8384 3733 8456 3735 8451
      3748 8447 3748 8438 3754 8436 3753 8421
      3757 8412 3765 8414 3769 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 270DEG 50KT 3819 8238 3775 8305
          3738 8365

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE OF THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO ADD
TORNADO WATCH 30.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST
WILL BE TWO FOLD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. WITH THE
GROUND AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY ALREADY SATURATED FROM A RAINFALL
LATE LAST WEEK...MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO RUN OFF. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A
MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF MODELS WERE
USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A STEADY FEED OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL BE THE TRIGGERS FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG...AND AT TIMES SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IT
LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE THE PERIOD FROM 16-21Z TODAY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHEN THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A 50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST TRIGGER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMP LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS IN SYNC WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA AND REAL TIME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...DECIDED TO BEEF UP WINDS FOR TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING TO AS
HIGH AS 50MPH ON A COUPLE OF RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THE UPDATED WIND FORECAST SEEMED JUSTIFIED.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS AS WELL. SOME TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT OVERALL THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS SINCE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT HAVE BEEN IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...SO THE PREEXISTING FORECASTS FOR THOSE TWO
ELEMENTS WERE KEPT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

UNDER BENIGN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVE NE TO OH BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW. OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL
INCREASE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ECMWF IS WANTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FROM THE WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE SOLUTION
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN THE LOW CLOSED OFF FURTHER SW...AND IT IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. NEVER-THE-LESS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND HAVE STILL USED A
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 13 OR 14Z
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA AROUND 22Z TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 4Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
559 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011400-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
559 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 30 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE MANY AREA
RIVERS TO QUICKLY RISE...WITH SOME RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING FLOOD
STAGE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING TODAY TO THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE.

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 N SALYERSVILLE       37.89N 83.06W
02/28/2011  M40 MPH          MORGAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 MPH GUST

&&

MB