Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Jackson, KY

872 
WWUS53 KJKL 281157
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

KYC011-065-165-173-197-205-281215-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110228T1215Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
657 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ESTILL...
POWELL...MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN BATH AND SOUTHERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 656 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CLEARFIELD TO ROTHWELL TO KINGS STATION...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  IRVINE...FRENCHBURG...ROTHWELL...COGSWELL...JINKS...NORTH IRVINE...
  ROSSLYN...WITT...WEST IRVINE...CAT CREEK...FAGAN...COTTAGE
  FURNACE...CRIX...YALE...WISEMANTOWN...RATLITT...STATION CAMP...
  ZILPO...BOWEN AND KNOWLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 8321 3805 8343 3793 8347 3782 8360
      3782 8365 3774 8370 3766 8383 3756 8391
      3757 8411 3765 8414 3767 8411 3780 8409
      3781 8413 3784 8411 3785 8402 3786 8404
      3794 8399 3810 8409 3814 8407 3816 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 268DEG 48KT 3817 8340 3797 8368
          3768 8405
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE OF THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO ADD
TORNADO WATCH 30.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST
WILL BE TWO FOLD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. WITH THE
GROUND AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY ALREADY SATURATED FROM A RAINFALL
LATE LAST WEEK...MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO RUN OFF. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A
MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF MODELS WERE
USED TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A STEADY FEED OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL BE THE TRIGGERS FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG...AND AT TIMES SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IT
LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE THE PERIOD FROM 16-21Z TODAY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHEN THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A 50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IS
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST TRIGGER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMP LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS IN SYNC WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA AND REAL TIME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...DECIDED TO BEEF UP WINDS FOR TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING TO AS
HIGH AS 50MPH ON A COUPLE OF RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THE UPDATED WIND FORECAST SEEMED JUSTIFIED.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
FORECASTS AS WELL. SOME TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT OVERALL THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS SINCE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT HAVE BEEN IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...SO THE PREEXISTING FORECASTS FOR THOSE TWO
ELEMENTS WERE KEPT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

UNDER BENIGN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY WEATHER LOCALLY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVE NE TO OH BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW. OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIP WILL
INCREASE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ECMWF IS WANTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER
LOW FROM THE WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE SOLUTION
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN THE LOW CLOSED OFF FURTHER SW...AND IT IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. NEVER-THE-LESS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...AND HAVE STILL USED A
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH ABOUT 8Z TONIGHT WILL BE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHEAR...AS STRONG WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE TAFS SITES AGAIN AROUND
8Z AS WELL. CIGS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TO MVFR BETWEEN 15 AND
16Z...AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE PERIOD 17-22Z
TO COVER ADDRESS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THE TAF SITES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FROM ROUGHLY 16Z THIS MORNING
THROUGH 22 OR 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FROM ROUGHLY 0-6Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND COOLER DRIER MOVES IN BEHIND
IT...HELPING TO QUICKLY CLEAR THINGS OUT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
559 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011400-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
559 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 30 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE MANY AREA
RIVERS TO QUICKLY RISE...WITH SOME RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING FLOOD
STAGE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING TODAY TO THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE.

AR