Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT-3 A.M. TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PRODUCTION OF SMOKE FROM THE VARIOUS FIRES IS NOT AS GREAT AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL SEEING SOME PROBLEMS DOWN WIND. EXPECT
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THIS EVENING
WITH CONVECTION ONLY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
IN THE FACE OF A 10-15 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.

SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FIRING IN GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY. OVER NORTH FLORIDA EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE
MOSTLY DIURNAL WITH THE WEST COAST-EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO TRAIL RIDGE.

SUNDAY...SUNDAY WE START TO BUILD IN A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP. EXPECT A DRIER
DAY WITH ABOVE CLIMO POPS.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BAD NEWS IS EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN PRETTY SOLIDLY AND SETS UP RESIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPERATURES. THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH OR
EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK BY MID WEEK. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY WE WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH - FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT VSBY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. EXPECT
IFR TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTN. ALTHO A REPRIEVE IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SSW...WILL KEEP MVFR AS ENUF
RESIDUAL SMOKE WILL COMBINE WITH PATCHY FOG. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
WLY SATURDAY MORN AND COULD SEE RETURN OF SMOKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH MVFR VSBY AT SSI AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHO
NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY BUMP WINDS INTO SCEC CATEGORY SUBSEQUENT
NIGHTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  95  72  97 /  30  40  20  20
SSI  76  91  76  94 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  71  95  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  71  94  71  95 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEABREEZES COLLIDE INLAND...EAST OF HIGHWAY 301. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE
WILDFIRES TODAY. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER
STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
A MILE OR LESS IN FOG AND SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

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