Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

.UPDATE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG A LINGERING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR NW GA
ZONES...SPECIFICALLY JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES. THIS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE SSE THIS EVENING AND PHASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL SEA BREEZE MERGER NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER IN N FL AND OUR
EASTERN GA ZONES. PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL FORCING (INCLUDING COLD 500 MB
TEMPS OF -11 TO -12 DEG C) WILL CONTINUE A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS
ACROSS OUR ZONES THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERNS
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SMOKE
FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL IMPACT AREAS E AND NE OF THE FIRE SITES
TONIGHT.

FRI THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN...WITH WET
DOWN BURSTS AND HAIL THE MAJOR CONCERNS GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SO FAR VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THROUGH 06Z. AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SETTLING INTO A SWLY DIRECTION EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KSSI WHICH WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF ALL OF THE SERN GA FIRES...ALTHOUGH A MIXTURE OF SMOKE/FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ OVER INLAND AREAS. FOR FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT
5-6SM FU HZ IN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z AS ANOTHER DAY
OF ATLC COAST SBRZ ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS WITH SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR TSTMS
MOVING FROM THE LAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  96  71  96 /  60  20  20  30
SSI  74  91  76  90 /  60  30  30  10
JAX  71  95  71  92 /  60  40  20  30
SGJ  72  91  74  90 /  50  20  20  10
GNV  71  94  71  95 /  30  20  20  20
OCF  71  95  71  96 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/HESS/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 102 TO 107 THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTH
FLORIDA.

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF A WAYCROSS TO LAKE CITY TO OCALA LINE. RESIDENTS WITH
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING DUE TO
A GUST FRONT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED TO BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES LATER TODAY...AND THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SMOKE WILL MIX WITH FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR RECENT RAIN AREAS.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 102 TO 107 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS
SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

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