Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT-3 A.M. TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PRODUCTION OF SMOKE FROM THE VARIOUS FIRES IS NOT AS GREAT AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL SEEING SOME PROBLEMS DOWN WIND. EXPECT
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THIS EVENING
WITH CONVECTION ONLY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
IN THE FACE OF A 10-15 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.

SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FIRING IN GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY. OVER NORTH FLORIDA EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE
MOSTLY DIURNAL WITH THE WEST COAST-EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO TRAIL RIDGE.

SUNDAY...SUNDAY WE START TO BUILD IN A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP. EXPECT A DRIER
DAY WITH ABOVE CLIMO POPS.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BAD NEWS IS EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN PRETTY SOLIDLY AND SETS UP RESIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPERATURES. THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH OR
EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK BY MID WEEK. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY WE WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH - FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT VSBY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. EXPECT
IFR TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTN. ALTHO A REPRIEVE IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SSW...WILL KEEP MVFR AS ENUF
RESIDUAL SMOKE WILL COMBINE WITH PATCHY FOG. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
WLY SATURDAY MORN AND COULD SEE RETURN OF SMOKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH MVFR VSBY AT SSI AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHO
NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY BUMP WINDS INTO SCEC CATEGORY SUBSEQUENT
NIGHTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  95  72  97 /  30  40  20  20
SSI  76  91  76  94 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  71  95  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  71  94  71  95 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEABREEZES COLLIDE INLAND...EAST OF HIGHWAY 301. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE
WILDFIRES TODAY. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER
STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
A MILE OR LESS IN FOG AND SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ132-172000-
COFFEE-
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL COFFEE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF AMBROSE...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
AMBROSE...DOUGLAS AND BROXTON THROUGH 400 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3152 8309 3157 8306 3161 8306 3163 8304
      3167 8280 3140 8282 3144 8313 3148 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 275DEG 7KT 3152 8301

TRABERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND GST     GAINESVILLE AIRPORT     29.69N 82.28W
06/17/2011  M65 MPH          ALACHUA            FL   ASOS

&&

JHESS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. AUGUSTINE           29.89N 81.31W
06/17/2011  E52 MPH          ST. JOHNS          FL   AWOS

            52 MPH GUST RECORDED AT THE ST AUGUSTINE AIRPORT.

&&

JHESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ152-164-172015-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-
351 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRANTLEY AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKOX...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HOBOKEN...STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND WINOKUR...HOBOKEN AND HICKOX THROUGH 415 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3101 8193 3101 8214 3119 8214 3119 8193
      3106 8193 3105 8194 3104 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 180DEG 0KT 3110 8203

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ133-172045-
JEFF DAVIS-
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES WEST OF HAZLEHURST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HAZLEHURST THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3195 8249 3184 8243 3184 8252 3180 8252
      3177 8273 3185 8280 3191 8269 3193 8268
      3193 8262 3196 8257 3197 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 244DEG 7KT 3184 8270

TRABERT