Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT-3 A.M. TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PRODUCTION OF SMOKE FROM THE VARIOUS FIRES IS NOT AS GREAT AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL SEEING SOME PROBLEMS DOWN WIND. EXPECT
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THIS EVENING
WITH CONVECTION ONLY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
IN THE FACE OF A 10-15 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.

SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FIRING IN GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY. OVER NORTH FLORIDA EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE
MOSTLY DIURNAL WITH THE WEST COAST-EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO TRAIL RIDGE.

SUNDAY...SUNDAY WE START TO BUILD IN A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP. EXPECT A DRIER
DAY WITH ABOVE CLIMO POPS.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BAD NEWS IS EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN PRETTY SOLIDLY AND SETS UP RESIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
CLIMO TEMPERATURES. THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH OR
EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK BY MID WEEK. AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY WE WILL
SEE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH - FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE CONTINUES TO RESTRICT VSBY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. EXPECT
IFR TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTN. ALTHO A REPRIEVE IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SSW...WILL KEEP MVFR AS ENUF
RESIDUAL SMOKE WILL COMBINE WITH PATCHY FOG. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
WLY SATURDAY MORN AND COULD SEE RETURN OF SMOKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH MVFR VSBY AT SSI AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHO
NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY BUMP WINDS INTO SCEC CATEGORY SUBSEQUENT
NIGHTS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  95  72  97 /  30  40  20  20
SSI  76  91  76  94 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  71  95  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  71  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  71  94  71  95 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEABREEZES COLLIDE INLAND...EAST OF HIGHWAY 301. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE
WILDFIRES TODAY. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER
STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
A MILE OR LESS IN FOG AND SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ133-172045-
JEFF DAVIS-
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES WEST OF HAZLEHURST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HAZLEHURST THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3195 8249 3184 8243 3184 8252 3180 8252
      3177 8273 3185 8280 3191 8269 3193 8268
      3193 8262 3196 8257 3197 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 244DEG 7KT 3184 8270

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ133-172100-
JEFF DAVIS-
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF HAZLEHURST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HAZLEHURST THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3192 8243 3184 8244 3184 8252 3181 8252
      3174 8270 3186 8278 3191 8269 3193 8268
      3193 8262 3197 8255 3195 8250 3197 8250
      3198 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 240DEG 6KT 3187 8266

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FLZ025-032-172045-
CLAY-DUVAL-
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLAY AND SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MAXVILLE TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKESIDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
MAXVILLE...LAKESIDE...DOCTORS INLET...BELLAIR...ORANGE PARK...
JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...ORTEGA...BALDWIN...RIVERSIDE AND NORMANDY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3010 8174 3014 8205 3027 8205 3042 8189
      3037 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 219DEG 18KT 3021 8203 3018 8177

HESS

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