Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Jackson, MS

902 
WWUS54 KJAN 272139
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSC075-272200-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-110427T2200Z/
LAUDERDALE MS-
439 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ZERO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARION...ALAMUCHA...MERIDIAN STATION...TOOMSUBA...KEWANEE AND
LAUDERDALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8842 3223 8860 3231 8874 3250 8876
      3258 8863 3258 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 235DEG 49KT 3237 8862

$$

GRG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM... (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL FOCUS ON HIGHLY
UNSTABLE...HIGHLY SHEARED...VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
UPWARDS OF 80 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRYLINE FROM WEST TO EAST
BY 8PM THIS EVENING.

AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND STRONG RADAR-INDICATED ROTATION.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. PLEASE STAY
ALERT AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LASTEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG
WITHIN AN AREA OF EXTREME LOW LVL SHEAR/0-1 SRH OF 350-450M2S2/ AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/0-6 KM OF 60-70KTS/. THESE PARAMETERS ARE FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z KJAN RAOB SOUNDING INDICATING ~3500 J/KG SBCAPE
AND 0-3 KM VALUES ~600M2S2. THESE PARAMETERS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY SFC
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 80S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S SURGING NORTHWARD ON A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LVL JET AND A STRONG 995MB SFC LOW TRAVERSING ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW-LVL JET COUPLED WITH NEARLY 60 KT H7 SOUTH-WEST
WINDS AND WESTERLY H5 WINDS OF 75-80 KT AND ON THE NOSE OF AN
INTRUDING 110 KT H25 JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE AND
TILTING OF STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE THEIR LONGEVITY AND STRENGTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KJAN VAD WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH 18Z JAN RAOB
SOUNDING INDICATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WHILE WINDS
REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI.
THUS...EASTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE VIOLENT/STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WILL STILL HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL..AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE
THIS LATE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WINDS WILL SWITCH
QUICKLY TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON
TAP AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL PULL
OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE NOSE IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK. ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE
OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD
AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET
HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW
HRS.

EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)
ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS
SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW
DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF
STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID
SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

TIMING WILL BE FROM NOON TO 7 PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OFF STORM
INITIATION...MESOCYCLONE MATURITY...AND STORM PROPAGATION...THE AREA
AT GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES LOOKS TO EXIST WITHIN A
ZONE FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL AND POINTS E/N OF THAT
LINE. AREAS OUTSIDE THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END SVR
STORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF ALL
PARAMETERS.

OUTSIDE THE SVR STORMS...FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTH. RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX HAS SET THE STAGE AND
ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TODAY COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES IF TRAINING
OCCURS. AS THE AREA WARMS THIS MORNING...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AND CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS...GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE DRY LINE ENTERS THE W/NW...WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
GET STRONGER AND GUST TO 50 MPH. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
DANGEROUS FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSRA(LARGE HAIL/SEVERE TURBULENCE/
WIND SHEAR)IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION 19-23Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES LA AND
MOVES INTO WRN MS BY 00Z FROM THE WEST. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH GUSTY S WINDS OF 20-35KTS
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FROPA WHEN WNW FLOW TAKES OVER
AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-25KTS. DRYING AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO A COUPLE OF VFR CLEAR DAYS TO FOLLOW./40/ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  74  48  82 /  13   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  74  44  80 /  47   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     50  76  46  82 /  14   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  77  45  84 /  34   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  75  44  83 /  14   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  48  82 /  11   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     50  73  48  81 /  12   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>044-047>049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

ALLEN/CME/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281630-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND
TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG TRACK...STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL MS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE
FROM NOON TO 7PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     DOWNBURST        4 E NANIH WAIYA         32.92N 88.89W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE...MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED OR
            DESTROYED...LARGE NUMBERS OF TREES DOWN PREVENTING
            EMERGENCY WORKERS FROM GETTING INTO AREA. UNKNOWN NUMBER
            OF INJURIES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            SOME OF THE HAIL WAS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TORNADO          4 E NANIH WAIYA         32.92N 88.89W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE...MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED OR
            DESTROYED...LARGE NUMBERS OF TREES DOWN PREVENTING
            EMERGENCY WORKERS FROM GETTING INTO AREA. UNKNOWN NUMBER
            OF INJURIES.

0330 PM     HAIL             TERRY                   32.10N 90.30W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0347 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            SOME OF THE HAIL WAS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
04/27/2011  E2.50 INCH       RANKIN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0350 PM     HAIL             STAR                    32.09N 90.05W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       RANKIN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TORNADO          4 E NANIH WAIYA         32.92N 88.89W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 3 FATAL *** UPDATE...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE...MOBILE HOMES
            DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...LARGE NUMBERS OF TREES DOWN
            PREVENTING EMERGENCY WORKERS FROM GETTING INTO AREA.
            MEDIA REPORTS THAT KEMPER COUNTY SO CONFIRMS 3 FATALITIES
            IN AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNW HESTERVILLE       33.25N 89.69W
04/27/2011                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 3122

&&