Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
502 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...A VERY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE AREA AND A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTION OF
THE DAY IS THE EXTENT THAT THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DESTRUCTIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS ALL BUT SRN
ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE COOLED IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REPORTING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A POOL OF JUICIER AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIR LIES JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND HEALTHY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
CAPE VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THE AIR MASS IS
RECOVERING QUICKLY AS INDICATED BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER WRN
ZONES. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL ONLY GET STRONGER WITH TIME TODAY SO
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF TORNADOES HAS
DIMINISHED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SRN/ESPECIALLY SERN/ZONES BEING
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS MORNING
AND GENERALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL STAND AS IS FOR NOW. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ECNTRL TO SCNTRL
ZONES BY 00Z THURSDAY AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SLIDE INTO THE REGION AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JET FLOW IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AREAS OF DECENT
INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS
TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS GUIDANCE GOES...INCREASED HIGHS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY. MEX POPS LOOKED OVERDONE FOR SATURDAY AND THE DRY AVG
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS WERE FOLLOWED.
&&

.AVIATION...DANGEROUS FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY
AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE CENTER
APPROACH WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN
2-4K FEET DECK THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  52  73  48 /  46  17   0   0
MERIDIAN      84  54  76  44 /  78  41   0   0
VICKSBURG     84  51  74  44 /  42  13   0   0
HATTIESBURG   85  56  77  46 /  60  20   0   0
NATCHEZ       85  49  72  47 /  42  10   0   0
GREENVILLE    84  52  73  49 /  53  14   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  51  73  49 /  62  22   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>044-047>049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-280330-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
WASHINGTON-
1027 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG
TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AN UNSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE SPRING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FORECAST TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>025-MSZ027>033-035>052-280330-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
1027 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST RISK EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...VERY LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AN UNSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE SPRING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LAZ026-MSZ053>066-072>074-280330-
CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1027 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL OCCCUR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THE CURRENT TIME...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN HOW MANY...IF ANY...STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-034-271030-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-WASHINGTON MS-
500 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF DERMOTT
TO 6 MILES WEST OF HOLLY RIDGE AT 500 AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON...SUNFLOWER...BOLIVAR AND NORTHERN
CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3386 9044 3339 9063 3346 9145 3357 9144
      3352 9126 3359 9122 3359 9117 3364 9116
      3369 9122 3372 9121 3372 9116 3367 9109
      3368 9104 3371 9105 3370 9112 3373 9115
      3379 9114 3379 9099 3385 9107 3390 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 202DEG 33KT 3356 9150 3351 9083

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
501 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
04/27/2011                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE OAK FELL ON A HOUSE IN THE HILLCREST SUBDIVISION

0345 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PHILADELPHIA            32.77N 89.11W
04/27/2011                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ELECTRICITY OUT IN PHILADELPHIA AND NORTHEAST OF DIXON.
            TREE DOWN NEAR RANGE AVE AND BAY STREET

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S DE KALB             32.73N 88.66W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 39 SOUTH OF DEKALB

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
502 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S DE KALB             32.73N 88.66W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 39 SOUTH OF DEKALB

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TORNADO          MONTPELIER              33.72N 88.95W
04/27/2011                   CLAY               MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, SEVERAL HOMES WITH DAMAGED ROOFS,
            NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN AND ONE PERSON TRAPPED IN A
            VEHICLE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSZ036-037-042-043-271055-
MADISON MS-HOLMES MS-ATTALA MS-YAZOO MS-
524 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAZOO CITY AT 524 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN YAZOO...SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA...SOUTH CENTRAL HOLMES
AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3293 8965 3293 8973 3284 8973 3268 9055
      3289 9060 3304 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1024Z 255DEG 59KT 3282 9031

BK