River Flood Warning 60, NWS Jackson, MS

155 
WGUS84 KJAN 280336
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1036 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
   MISSISSIPPI...

   NOXUBEE RIVER AT MACON AFFECTING NOXUBEE COUNTY 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC103-290936-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0060.110429T0600Z-110429T1800Z/
/MCNM6.1.ER.110429T0600Z.110429T0600Z.110429T1200Z.NO/
1036 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011


THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NOXUBEE RIVER AT MACON
* FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...LOW LAND NEAR THE RIVER IS FLOODED

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   THU   FRI   SAT CREST DAY  TIME

NOXUBEE RIVER
MACON           26   5.8 WED 10 PM  26.0  23.1  20.6  26.0 FRI 01 AM

$$

088 
WGUS84 KJAN 281512
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1012 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  NOXUBEE RIVER AT MACON AFFECTING NOXUBEE COUNTY




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC103-281542-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-110429T1800Z/
/MCNM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1012 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NOXUBEE RIVER AT MACON.
* AT  10:00 AM THURSDAY THE ESTIMATED STAGE WAS 22.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 23.3 FEET THIS
  EVENING.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   FRI   SAT   SUN CREST DAY  TIME

NOXUBEE RIVER
MACON           26  E22.7 THU 10AM  22.2  20.1  18.2     CREST BLO FS        

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD
AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET
HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW
HRS.

EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)
ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS
SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW
DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF
STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID
SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

TIMING WILL BE FROM NOON TO 7 PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OFF STORM
INITIATION...MESOCYCLONE MATURITY...AND STORM PROPAGATION...THE AREA
AT GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES LOOKS TO EXIST WITHIN A
ZONE FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL AND POINTS E/N OF THAT
LINE. AREAS OUTSIDE THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END SVR
STORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF ALL
PARAMETERS.

OUTSIDE THE SVR STORMS...FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTH. RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX HAS SET THE STAGE AND
ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TODAY COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES IF TRAINING
OCCURS. AS THE AREA WARMS THIS MORNING...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AND CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS...GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE DRY LINE ENTERS THE W/NW...WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
GET STRONGER AND GUST TO 50 MPH. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...DANGEROUS FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSRA(LARGE HAIL/SEVERE TURBULENCE/
WIND SHEAR)IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION 17-21Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES LA
AND MOVES INTO WRN MS BY 00Z FROM THE WEST. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH GUSTY S WINDS OF
20-35KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FROPA WHEN WNW FLOW
TAKES OVER AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-25KTS. DRYING AIR MASS LATER
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF VFR CLEAR DAYS TO FOLLOW./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  52  73  48 /  51  14   0   0
MERIDIAN      84  54  76  44 /  53  41   0   0
VICKSBURG     84  51  74  44 /  42  12   0   0
HATTIESBURG   85  56  77  46 /  31  20   0   0
NATCHEZ       85  49  72  47 /  42  10   0   0
GREENVILLE    84  52  73  49 /  72  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  51  73  49 /  71  13   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>044-047>049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-281045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER ALTHOUGH A TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS
TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING AND RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHEN A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ025>033-035>061-281045-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
AREA TODAY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
LONG TRACK...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
PONDING WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS
TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE AIR MASS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE LIKELY TODAY.

MSZ062>066-072>074-281045-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
535 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA TODAY. LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG TORNADOES...POSSIBLY LONG
TRACK...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY WITH INTENSE WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE. A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
944 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RALEIGH                 32.03N 89.52W
04/27/2011                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TORNADO          5 SSW EUPORA            33.48N 89.31W
04/27/2011                   CHOCTAW            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER
            CONFIRMS 1 FATALITY IN A CAMPER AT A STATE PARK.
            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY
            NEAR THE BORDER WITH WEBSTER COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN
            ACROSS ROADS AND ON TOPS OF HOUSES. MOBILE HOMES
            DESTROYED AND SOME HOMES DAMAGED...ESPECIALLY ALONG
            HEBRON ROAD. AT LEAST 7 INJURIES REPORTED...AND DAMAGE
            AND INJURY REPORTS STILL COMING IN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
954 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                32.74N 89.53W
04/27/2011                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 BUSINESSES IN CARTHAGE WITH ROOF DAMAGE...2 HOUSES IN
            THE CITY WITH TREES ON THEM. POWER WAS OUT IN THE CITY
            FOR A SHORT TIME.

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOOBA                  32.83N 88.48W
04/27/2011                   KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR DAMAGE TO A HOUSE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1009 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W AFTON               32.24N 91.24W
04/27/2011                   MADISON            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE AREA. TREES AND
            POWERLINES ALSO DOWN NEAR TALLULAH NEAR THE SAME TIME.

&&

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORA                   32.55N 90.31W
04/27/2011                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. MANY TREES FELL
            ACROSS ROADS AND POWER LINES. ONE TREE FELL ON A HOUSE IN
            FLORA.

&&