Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Jackson, MS

223 
WWUS54 KJAN 271932
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

MSC053-163-271942-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0316.000000T0000Z-110427T2000Z/
HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
232 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO AND
SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3322 8975 3318 8978 3316 8982 3298 9024
      3303 9035 3302 9037 3305 9037 3306 9041
      3308 9043 3312 9042 3310 9037 3313 9038
      3311 9034 3321 9032 3333 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 244DEG 43KT 3313 9018

$$

MSC051-272000-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0316.000000T0000Z-110427T2000Z/
HOLMES MS-
232 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR HOLMES COUNTY...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOWARD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LEXINGTON...BOWLING GREEN...EMORY AND WEST

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8975 3318 8978 3316 8982 3298 9024
      3303 9035 3302 9037 3305 9037 3306 9041
      3308 9043 3312 9042 3310 9037 3313 9038
      3311 9034 3321 9032 3333 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 244DEG 43KT 3313 9018

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE
CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD
AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET
HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW
HRS.

EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)
ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS
SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW
DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF
STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID
SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

TIMING WILL BE FROM NOON TO 7 PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OFF STORM
INITIATION...MESOCYCLONE MATURITY...AND STORM PROPAGATION...THE AREA
AT GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES LOOKS TO EXIST WITHIN A
ZONE FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL AND POINTS E/N OF THAT
LINE. AREAS OUTSIDE THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END SVR
STORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF ALL
PARAMETERS.

OUTSIDE THE SVR STORMS...FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTH. RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX HAS SET THE STAGE AND
ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TODAY COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES IF TRAINING
OCCURS. AS THE AREA WARMS THIS MORNING...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AND CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS...GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE DRY LINE ENTERS THE W/NW...WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY
GET STRONGER AND GUST TO 50 MPH. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...DANGEROUS FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSRA(LARGE HAIL/SEVERE TURBULENCE/
WIND SHEAR)IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION 17-21Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES LA
AND MOVES INTO WRN MS BY 00Z FROM THE WEST. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH GUSTY S WINDS OF
20-35KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FROPA WHEN WNW FLOW
TAKES OVER AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-25KTS. DRYING AIR MASS LATER
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF VFR CLEAR DAYS TO FOLLOW./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  52  73  48 /  51  14   0   0
MERIDIAN      84  54  76  44 /  53  41   0   0
VICKSBURG     84  51  74  44 /  42  12   0   0
HATTIESBURG   85  56  77  46 /  31  20   0   0
NATCHEZ       85  49  72  47 /  42  10   0   0
GREENVILLE    84  52  73  49 /  72  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  51  73  49 /  71  13   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>044-047>049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281630-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND
TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG TRACK...STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO LAUREL MS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE
FROM NOON TO 7PM WITH A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARROLLTON              33.50N 89.92W
04/27/2011                   CARROLL            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE...1 VACANT BUILDING
            DESTROYED...3 BARNS WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN. DAMAGE SCATTERED AROUND THE COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1156 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
04/27/2011                   CHICOT             AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS TOWN. HIGHWAY
            35 WEST CLOSED OFF DUE TO TREES AND POWERLINES BLOCKING
            TRAFFIC.

&&

JJALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HAIL             MOUND BAYOU             33.88N 90.73W
04/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   PUBLIC

&&

JJALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARCHMAN                33.92N 90.50W
04/27/2011                   SUNFLOWER          MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A FEW POWER LINES DOWN

&&

JJALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW GREENWOOD          33.55N 90.23W
04/27/2011                   LEFLORE            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            7 POWER POLES DOWN ALONG HWY 49.

&&

JJALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
202 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             WATERPROOF              31.81N 91.39W
04/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       TENSAS             LA   PUBLIC

&&

JJALLEN