Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS S/W CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT MID
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE DEEP MOISTURE HEAD OF SAID FEATURE...ALONG
WITH AN AXIS OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...AS
LOWER CLOUDS THIN...HAVE ALL LED TO A RAMP UP OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHERN AND ERN END OF THE SC UPSTATE...TO
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I77 IN WESTERN NC. WE WILL CONTINUE
MODERATELY HIGH POPS THOSE SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WET MICROBURSTS. WEST OF
THE S/W PERHAPS SUBSIDENCE HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION... ALTHOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
INCREASE BY 00Z. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO THIS
EVENING.

INTERESTINGLY THE MODELS RETURN A SELY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO H85
ALONG THE NC ESCARPMENT TONIGHT...BEFORE VEERING OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE A SECOND MAXIMUM IN POPS AND QPF THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE THE VEERING TAKES PLACE AND TENDS TO SHUT
THINGS OFF. WE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF THE EVENT...OR WATER AMOUNTS.

LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN PARTS OF THE MO VALLEY WILL SEND A
PACKET OF ENERGY OUR WAY MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WILL START POPS OUT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY MORNING
THEN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH THE PERSISTENT H5 CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND UPPER LVL RIDGING TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD THRU THE PERIOD AND WEAKEN SOME...BUT REMAINS WELL
DEFINED INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER LVL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST.

LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN NC MTS AND PUSHING A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ITSELF. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING
THAT THE LOW LVLS WILL DRY OUT A BIT SOONER ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID AND UPPER LVL SUPPORT
STILL LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SOME WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z. I KEPT A HIGH CHANCE POP OVER MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THE
FIRST 12HRS OR SO OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT...POPS WERE LOWERED TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPS WERE KEPT
NEAR PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WED...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE DRIER WEST TO SWLY LOW
LVL FLOW PERSIST OVER THE CWFA THRU WED. MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER
OVERALL ON WED WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
THUS...JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND
FOOTHILLS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS WERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR 2
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH VALUES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 120 PM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN THE OP MODELS WITH
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THU. A NRN PACIFIC S/W
BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
LIFT IT NE/LY. THE 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...BUT BY 00Z FRI DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE UPPER
PATTERN SHIFTING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROF OR QUASI/ZONAL CONFIG OVER
THE CWFA. THIS WILL BREAK THE LONGITUDINAL BLOCK AND ALLOW A VERY
STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...INSTIGATING A S/LY DISPLACEMENT OF A CP AIRMASS OVER THE
ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...WITH DEEP NW/LY FLOW SETTING UP
BEGINNING LATE THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...A MAINLY DRY
FCST IS IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING THE
NC MTNS FRI...WHERE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE ADVERTISED ATTM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER MAXES WILL BE A COUPLE CATS
BELOW NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH THE NEW AIRMASS MIXING AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT CLT... SHORT TERM MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
PUNCHING INTO PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA).
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...AS A RESULT WOULD
EXPECT AN AXIS OF SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION TO RULE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INCLUDING
CLT WITH VERY REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. ADDITIONALLY AXIS OF DCAPE
CO-INCIDENT WITH ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAS ALREADY COMMENCED.
FINALLY MODELS CLEARLY DEPICTING S/W AXIS SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO
THAT REGION. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE S/W AXIS APPARENT SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THROTTLED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
VARIOUS MESO SCALE MODELS SHOW INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CB'S AND VFR CIGS WEST OF THE S/W AXIS.

LOOK FOR SITES TO GO INTO THE DUMPS TONIGHT WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
FALLING INTO IFR CONDITIONS. WE MAY NOT HAVE HIT SOME PLACES HARD
ENOUGH IN COMPARISON TO THIS MORNING...AND WILL ALERT THE INCOMING
SHIFT.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SUBTLE CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

OUTLOOK....AFTER ANOTHER RAMP-UP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...LOOK FOR THINGS TO SETTLE A BIT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TS
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501>510-260745-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWER MAY FOCUS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-048-052-056-057-059-063-064-068>072-082-SCZ002-003-
005>014-019-260745-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-062-SCZ001-004-260745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCZ071-251830-
MECKLENBURG-
147 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...
  PAW CREEK...
  CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.
WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE
SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3507 8090 3516 8101 3518 8100 3522 8101
      3525 8101 3542 8088 3525 8065

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

SCZ007-012-013-251845-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF CROSS ANCHOR...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSS KEYS...
  BUFFALO...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3484 8170 3464 8152 3445 8190 3460 8203

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURENS                 34.50N 82.03W
09/25/2011                   LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF
            LAURENS.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             LAURENS                 34.50N 82.03W
09/25/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE REPORTED IN THE CITY OF
            LAURENS BY SPOTTER.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

SCZ013-014-251930-
CHESTER-UNION-
247 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND WESTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITMIRE...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF UNION...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARLISLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3451 8160 3452 8164 3456 8168 3456 8170
      3480 8146 3463 8125 3456 8134 3456 8141
      3456 8142 3451 8141 3448 8145 3448 8149
      3444 8154

KRENTZ

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