Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

893 
WGUS72 KGSP 252116
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC119-260030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110926T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE OCCURRING IN STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE 
AREA.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST 
OF 485 WEST OF CHARLOTTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8084 3514 8087 3516 8094 3526 8090

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS BEING MADE FOR CLOUDS AND POPS WITH SLOW EWD CLEARING
AND CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ALONG
ELONGATED S/W CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC JET FOR LIFTING PURPOSES...HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY MAY
REMAIN WEST WHERE CLEARING CAN DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. BELOW IS THE
EARLIER FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THE LATEST UPDATE KEEPS MORE SOLID CHC POPS ALONG THE ERN ESCARPMENT
OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS S TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER LINGERS OVER IL THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS
PERSISTED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTN CHAIN FOR DAYS...AND DIVERGENCE
NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SW FLOW AT MID LEVELS TODAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP COVERAGE DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT MAY ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO GENERATE BETTER OUTFLOWS GIVEN THE
STRONG SFC TO MID LEVEL THETA E LAPSE. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED THOUGH. WILL ADVERTISE BETTER POPS ACROSS NRN
AND ERN SECTIONS...AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE DRIER AIR S AND SW.
WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

SRLY 850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SE BL FLOW...TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE MTNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL
FOCUS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN. WILL ADVERTISE RELATIVELY WARM MINS...ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ON MONDAY...A H5 CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. BY MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS AND SLOW IF NOT
STALL. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO RANGE
BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. I WILL INDICATE 30 TO
40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE MTNS.
MONDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ISO TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SLOWS. HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY
PEAK A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 4
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I WILL TIE
POPS TO THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN
SCHC POPS WEST TO 40 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 DURING THE HEART OF
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY CLOSE TO MONDAY/S
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 120 PM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN THE OP MODELS WITH
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THU. A NRN PACIFIC S/W
BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
LIFT IT NE/LY. THE 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE
OTHER MODELS...BUT BY 00Z FRI DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE UPPER
PATTERN SHIFTING TO MORE OF A BROAD TROF OR QUASI/ZONAL CONFIG OVER
THE CWFA. THIS WILL BREAK THE LONGITUDINAL BLOCK AND ALLOW A VERY
STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...INSTIGATING A S/LY DISPLACEMENT OF A CP AIRMASS OVER THE
ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...WITH DEEP NW/LY FLOW SETTING UP
BEGINNING LATE THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...A MAINLY DRY
FCST IS IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHING THE
NC MTNS FRI...WHERE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE ADVERTISED ATTM. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. HOWEVER MAXES WILL BE A COUPLE CATS
BELOW NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH THE NEW AIRMASS MIXING AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHORT TERM MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
PUNCHING INTO OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) WHERE BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. WOULD EXPECT AN AXIS
OF SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION TO RULE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE PARTS OF THE UPSTATE INTO THE I77 CORRIDOR IN NC. RESTRICTED
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ELSEWHERE CIGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CARRY CB'S UNTIL THINGS SETTLE.

ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS WITH THE MOST LIKELY SITES HKY AND AVL. CIGS
UNDER 1K AND VSBYS UNDER 1 MILE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/TS
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501>510-260745-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWER MAY FOCUS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-048-052-056-057-059-063-064-068>072-082-SCZ002-003-
005>014-019-260745-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-062-SCZ001-004-260745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
342 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCZ068>070-251830-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-
141 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN
GASTON AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGSTOWN...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAWNDALE...
  CHERRYVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3537 8125 3524 8163 3536 8171 3542 8170
      3557 8144 3556 8138

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCZ071-251830-
MECKLENBURG-
147 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...
  PAW CREEK...
  CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.
WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE
SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3507 8090 3516 8101 3518 8100 3522 8101
      3525 8101 3542 8088 3525 8065

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

SCZ007-012-013-251845-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF CROSS ANCHOR...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSS KEYS...
  BUFFALO...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3484 8170 3464 8152 3445 8190 3460 8203

KRENTZ