Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

761 
WGUS72 KGSP 250804
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC011-023-027-251100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110925T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
404 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 359 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SERIES OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING 
REPEATEDLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AREA FROM JONAS RIDGE TO 
NEWLAND TO NEAR BLOWING ROCK. RADAR AND GAGE DATA INDICATED RAINFALL 
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...AND 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG WILSON 
CREEK...IMPACTING KILLIANS CAMPGROUND AND BROWN MOUNTAIN BEACH ROAD. 
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH TOE RIVER IN 
NEWLAND...WHERE WATER MAY APPROACH BUILDINGS AND PARKING LOTS FROM 
PINOLA STREET TO LINVILLE STREET. ADDITIONAL STREAM AND CREEK 
FLOODING...AS WELL AS HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN POOR DRAINAGE 
AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEWLAND...BANNER ELK...GLOBE... 
INGALLS...JONAS RIDGE AND LINVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE 
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 8190 3621 8190 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8159 3580 8198 3581 8198 3586 8191
      3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196 3592 8195
      3592 8199 3595 8204 3599 8206

$$

HG

448 
WGUS72 KGSP 250930
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC011-023-027-251100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110925T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 519 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SERIES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
BLUE RIDGE FROM JONAS RIDGE TO GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN. A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED AS WELL. RADAR AND RAIN GAGES INDICATE 
RECENT RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES IN THIS AREA...AND 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH PER 
HOUR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7 AM.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING 
TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...NEWLAND...BANNER ELK...GLOBE...INGALLS...JONAS RIDGE AND 
LINVILLE. WATER LEVELS ALONG WILSON CREEK NEAR EDGEMONT AND THE TOE 
RIVER IN LINVILLE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE 
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL STREAM AND CREEK FLOODING IS LIKELY IN EXTREME 
NORTHWEST CALDWELL COUNTY...NORTHWEST OF UPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN DRIVING IN THE DARK SINCE IT IS HARDER 
TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO 
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. TURN AROUND AND FIND 
ANOTHER ROUTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 8190 3621 8190 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8159 3580 8198 3581 8198 3586 8191
      3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196 3592 8195
      3592 8199 3595 8204 3599 8206

$$

HG

628 
WGUS72 KGSP 251059
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC011-023-027-251112-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110925T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
659 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 700 AM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. 

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER 
THIS MORNING. SATURATED SOIL AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS AND 
CREEKS WILL MAKE THE AREA ACROSS EASTERN AVERY COUNTY SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS...CAMPERS...AND MOTORIST 
SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON WATER LEVELS ON ANY NEARBY SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT 
TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3624 8190 3621 8190 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8159 3580 8198 3581 8198 3586 8191
      3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196 3592 8195
      3592 8199 3595 8204 3599 8206

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS HAS TRIGGERED HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ALONG
THE ERN ESCARPMENT IN NC. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS ENOUGH STEERING
FLOW TO KEEP ANY ECHOES FROM ANCHORING...SO NO WATCHES ARE NEEDED
BUT WILL HANDLE ANY ISOLATED HYDRO ISSUES WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER LINGERS OVER IL EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS
PERSISTED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTN CHAIN FOR DAYS...AND DIVERGENCE
NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SW FLOW AT MID LEVELS TODAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP COVERAGE DOWN SOMEWHAT...BUT MAY ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO GENERATE BETTER OUTFLOWS GIVEN THE
STRONG SFC TO MID LEVEL THETA E LAPSE. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED THOUGH. WILL ADVERTISE BETTER POPS ACROSS NRN
AND ERN SECTIONS...AND THE LOWEST POPS IN THE DRIER AIR S AND SW.
WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARD THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

SRLY 850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SE BL FLOW...TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE MTNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL
FOCUS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE MTNS ONCE AGAIN. WILL ADVERTISE RELATIVELY WARM MINS...ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EASTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...SHOWING A STEADY MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW
INTO THE SYSTEM ACRS THE CWFA...RESULTING DECENT INSTBY BOTH MON AND
TUE AFTN ACRS THE PIEDMONT (LESS SO IN THE MTNS). AS FOR A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LTL TO WORK WITH ON MONDAY.
FOR NOW...HAVE A SHOTGUN CHC OWING TO THE INSTBY. THE PREFERENCE IS
THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A FROPA TUE. SO I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY...ESP EAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW MODEST INSTBY AND SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW/S CIRCULATION TUE AFTN. THE SHEAR
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. IF LLVL FLOW HAS TOO
MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...DEWPTS MAY START MIXING OUT MORE AND
CONSEQUENTLY STRONGER CIN ACRS THE AREA MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. IN ANY
CASE...ALL THE STRONG FORCING AND LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE CWFA CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE TSTMS...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL CONVECTION IS
MORE UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 225 PM SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY...THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA...AS UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM
BLOCKY TO MORE PROGRESSIVE BY END OF MEDIUM RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT AND LIKELY STAY DRY THRU
REST OF THE PERIOD...AS A DRY SLOT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD. HEIGHTS RISE WED AND THU...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN STATES...POSSIBLY BRINGING IN A DRY
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
PATTERN CHANGE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS DRY AND
NEAR NORMAL THRU FRIDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOIST ESE SFC FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
LOWER CIGS HAVE YET TO FILL IN AT ISSUANCE TIME. GIVEN THE COVERAGE
OF IFR IN THE PROXIMITY HOWEVER...IT IS SHOULD ONLY BE A MATTER OF
TIME UNTIL IFR CIGS FORM. WILL TAKE CIGS UP THROUGH MVFR THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...SCATTERING TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOIST BL AND
LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR
THIS AFTN AT PRESENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS IN STORE
FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TOGGLE BETWEEN ESE AND ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TAF LOCATIONS. VCSH WILL BE NEEDED FOR KAVL TO KHKY
THROUGH DAYBREAK WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL BE CLOSEST. EXPECT IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST ALL BUT KAND THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH A
SLOW RECOVERY THROUGH MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SCATTERING TO
VFR THIS AFTN. ANY TSTMS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL TREND
TAFS BACK TOWARD CIGS IN THE UPSLOPE PREFERRED AREAS AFTER 02Z.
EXPECT LIGHT SE TO ENE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND SLIP EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM WED ONWARD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
006>009-012>014-260245-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP WHERE A SERIES OF
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-
004-005-010-011-019-260245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.