Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

633 
WGUS72 KGSP 250741
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC111-121-251030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110925T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-
341 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

AT 340 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS 
NORTHERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES ARE 
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR 
THROUGH 430 AM. HOWEVER...OBSERVED RAINFALL ACROSS WOODLAWN TO 
LITTLE SWITZERLAND AND NORTH INTO SPRUCE PINE RANGES FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 
INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...MANY 
AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH ONGOING RUNOFF. 

THE BASINS ALONG THE TOMS...HARRIS...AND ARMSTRONG CREEKS IN THE 
WOODLAWN AREA HAVE COLLECTED THE GREATEST RAINFALL. RESIDENTS AND 
MOTORIST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE CREEKS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS 
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 250 AM...ONE LANE AT THE INTERSECTION OF 
HIGHWAY 221 AND 226 NORTH OF WOODLAWN WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOODED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8206 3594 8203 3591 8198 3592 8195
      3596 8194 3589 8191 3585 8192 3581 8199
      3576 8192 3569 8201 3573 8211 3591 8214

$$

NED

612 
WGUS72 KGSP 250935
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC111-121-251030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110925T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-
535 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

AT 525 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL BETWEEN MARION AND WOODLAWN. THESE SHOWERS 
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WOODLAWN...LITTLE 
SWITZERLAND...SPRUCE PINE LINE THROUGH 630 AM. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES 
SHOULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AN HOUR. GAUGE AND RADAR 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT AREA FROM WOODLAWN TO LITTLE 
SWITZERLAND AND NORTH INTO SPRUCE PINE HAVE SEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES 
SINCE MIDNIGHT.

MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE BASINS 
ALONG THE TOMS...HARRIS...AND ARMSTRONG CREEKS IN THE WOODLAWN AREA 
HAVE COLLECTED THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RESIDENTS AND 
MOTORIST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE CREEKS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS 
EARLY THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER 
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8206 3594 8203 3591 8198 3592 8195
      3596 8194 3589 8191 3585 8192 3581 8199
      3576 8192 3569 8201 3573 8211 3591 8214

$$

NED

717 
WGUS72 KGSP 251035
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

NCC111-121-251045-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110925T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-
635 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MCDOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO 
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. 

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER 
THIS MORNING. SATURATED SOIL AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ON STREAMS AND 
CREEKS WILL MAKE THE AREA AROUND WOODLAWN TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY. RESIDENTS...CAMPERS...AND 
MOTORIST SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON WATER LEVELS ON ANY NEARBY 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE 
REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3599 8206 3594 8203 3591 8198 3592 8195
      3596 8194 3589 8191 3585 8192 3581 8199
      3576 8192 3569 8201 3573 8211 3591 8214

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW HAVE COMBINED TO HELP
INITIATE A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NRN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO ALONG
I-26 IN THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THERE MAY BE SOME
TRAINING CELLS IN THE SLY STEERING FLOW. CHC NOT HIGH ENUF OF ANY
WATCHES...BUT PRECIP RATES AND STREAM LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECT
LOWS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AN AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA WITH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SFC BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER
THE I-77 CORRIDOR SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP END SHRA OVER THE
WRN SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHRA COULD
LINGER OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDINESS...DEVELOPING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO REACH AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EASTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...SHOWING A STEADY MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW
INTO THE SYSTEM ACRS THE CWFA...RESULTING DECENT INSTBY BOTH MON AND
TUE AFTN ACRS THE PIEDMONT (LESS SO IN THE MTNS). AS FOR A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LTL TO WORK WITH ON MONDAY.
FOR NOW...HAVE A SHOTGUN CHC OWING TO THE INSTBY. THE PREFERENCE IS
THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A FROPA TUE. SO I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY...ESP EAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW MODEST INSTBY AND SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW/S CIRCULATION TUE AFTN. THE SHEAR
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. IF LLVL FLOW HAS TOO
MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...DEWPTS MAY START MIXING OUT MORE AND
CONSEQUENTLY STRONGER CIN ACRS THE AREA MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. IN ANY
CASE...ALL THE STRONG FORCING AND LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE CWFA CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE TSTMS...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL CONVECTION IS
MORE UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 225 PM SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY...THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA...AS UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM
BLOCKY TO MORE PROGRESSIVE BY END OF MEDIUM RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT AND LIKELY STAY DRY THRU
REST OF THE PERIOD...AS A DRY SLOT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD. HEIGHTS RISE WED AND THU...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN STATES...POSSIBLY BRINGING IN A DRY
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
PATTERN CHANGE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS DRY AND
NEAR NORMAL THRU FRIDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST ATTM. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON ELY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A STEADILY
LOWERING CIG THIS EVENING WITH MVFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IFR
BY DAYBREAK. MVFR VSBY ALSO EXPECTED. SHRA ALSO COULD RETURN BUT CHC
TOO LOW AND TIMING TOO UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION. VSBY WILL QUICKLY LIFT
THRU THE MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL NOON. ELY WIND
BECOMES LIGHT NELY OVERNIGHT THEN ELY SUN MORNING AND SE FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
KAND THE EXCEPTION WHERE CIGS REMAIN LOW VFR. MVFR VSBY WILL DEVELOP
AT THE SC SITES WITH IFR OVER NC. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT
OVER SC BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU NOON NC. LIGHT WIND
BECOMES NELY OVERNIGHT THEN SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. KAVL THE
EXCEPTION WHERE SELY WIND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BECOMING SLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER AIR BEHIND A FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY MID
WEEK. UNTIL THEN...MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
LIKELY EACH DAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
006>009-012>014-260245-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP WHERE A SERIES OF
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-
004-005-010-011-019-260245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
1035 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.