Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KUEX
WSR-88D SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK THAT THE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A COUPLE OF
TEMPO GROUPS AND TRY TO CAPTURE THE MAIN IDEA THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY IFR. THE 18Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE FORM
OF A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  AFTERNOON SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE FROM NEAR KDDC...SOUTHWARD INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR KRSL
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP.  THE 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOWED
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL GET.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WARM
FRONT COULD STILL TRY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS...THUS
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LATER THIS EVENING...H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTHWARD...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA POTENTIALLY GETTING MORE RAINFALL. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD ALSO BRING A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD AND TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM FOCUS EAST.  THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LESSER RAIN CHANCES FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LOOK POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A SHEARED OUT VORTICITY LOBE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
AS THE VORT LOBE PIVOTS EASTWARD...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...BUT WITH
MODELS NOT HAVING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND WARMER PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN KANSAS MONDAY SETTING UP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GENERALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE INCONSISTENCIES WHICH LEAD TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH OR HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE. FEEL THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT DETERMINING MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WOULD BE A CHALLENGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
317 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS KANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ALSO IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND POSSIBLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
832 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ017-018-200200-
OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS-
832 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OSBORNE AND EASTERN ROOKS
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
ALTON TO CODELL TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CODELL...AND MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CODELL...
  PLAINVILLE...
  ALTON...
  PORTIS...
  WOODSTON...
  STOCKTON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3957 9926 3956 9861 3931 9880 3915 9894
      3913 9912 3913 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 195DEG 33KT 3938 9887 3922 9910
          3908 9931

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
833 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             14 E NATOMA             39.19N 98.76W
05/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM EARLIER. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
835 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ006-007-200200-
JEWELL KS-SMITH KS-
835 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JEWELL AND SMITH COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
ESBON TO HARLAN TO ALTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GAYLORD...
  ESBON...
  LEBANON...
  BELLAIRE...
  CEDAR...
  SMITH CENTER...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3957 9843 3957 9877 3958 9900 3981 9891
      3992 9867 3996 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 193DEG 19KT 3974 9847 3966 9874
          3950 9897

WESELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
905 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ006-007-200245-
JEWELL KS-SMITH KS-
905 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEWELL AND SMITH
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 904 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURR OAK TO LEBANON
TO GAYLORD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BELLAIRE...
  ATHOL...
  SMITH CENTER...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3974 9830 3957 9863 3958 9904 4000 9881
      4000 9856 4000 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 190DEG 20KT 3993 9834 3983 9857
          3971 9880

WESELY

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