River Flood Warning 10, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS...AS ANOTHER LOBE OF
ENERGY FROM AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE REGION...SPARKING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STARTING
OFF THIS MORNING...IFR/LIFR CIG AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS
SETTLED BACK INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH VSBY IS HOLDING UP IN VFR
TERRITORY. THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT CIG WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE AREA AND
HELPS SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER. AM AIMING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THIS COULD
PROVE TOO OPTIMISTIC IF THESE LOW CLOUDS DON/T SCOUR.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE LEFT A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES AND
TIMING. AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY
HIGH THAT THE LAST 6-9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION VERSUS THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/

DISCUSSION...A POTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT AND THE CONVECTION EXPANDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
LLVL STRENGTHENED TO 40 TO 45KTS. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE HAD SOME
REPORTS OF HAIL AND ISSUED A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS...THE MAIN EVENT
FOR US HAS BEEN HYDRO RELATED WITH A SECOND DOSE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THIS HAS CAUSED AREAS OF LOWLAND
FLOODING AND RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.

ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG LLVL JET OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  AFTER
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION DEPARTS...FOCUS THEN TURNS TO HOW THINGS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH
SFC LOWS PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED FM SW SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FM THE SFC LOW
CENTERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 00Z SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC DPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ...MUCAPES MAINLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40KTS. AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE WESTERN SFC TROUGH EDGES
EASTWARD...CONVECTION LOOKS FAIR GAME AGAIN DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK PROBABLE AGAIN
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF FOR OUR CWA FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO
OSBORNE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE OUR CURRENT LOWLAND FLOODING SITUATION.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE TONIGHT
WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES ATTM.  THIS NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO END EARLIER IN THE EVENING...BY 06Z AS THE
SYSTEM/WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST.

ON SATURDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALTHOUGH FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THE SURFACE PATTERN
LOOKS UNORGANIZED AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...HOWEVER SREF
PROGS MUCAPE IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWA IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL CONDITIONS AND STORMY WEATHER...SUNDAY IS
LOOKING DRY AND WARM WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.  H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE AND WILL AIM
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
431 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO YORK HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING
CONDITIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONDITIONS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REPUBLICAN
RIVER IN THE GUIDE ROCK AREA...AND FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
SOLOMON RIVER IN THE PORTIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GENEVA
NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FROM
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RELEASES FROM KINGSLEY DAM ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE RISES ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER...AND THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR
COZAD IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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