Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KUEX
WSR-88D SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THINK THAT THE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH A COUPLE OF
TEMPO GROUPS AND TRY TO CAPTURE THE MAIN IDEA THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY IFR. THE 18Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE FORM
OF A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  AFTERNOON SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE FROM NEAR KDDC...SOUTHWARD INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR KRSL
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP.  THE 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOWED
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL GET.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WARM
FRONT COULD STILL TRY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS...THUS
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LATER THIS EVENING...H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTHWARD...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA POTENTIALLY GETTING MORE RAINFALL. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD ALSO BRING A LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALREADY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD AND TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD TAKE
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM FOCUS EAST.  THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LESSER RAIN CHANCES FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LOOK POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A SHEARED OUT VORTICITY LOBE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
AS THE VORT LOBE PIVOTS EASTWARD...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...BUT WITH
MODELS NOT HAVING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND WARMER PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN KANSAS MONDAY SETTING UP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GENERALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE INCONSISTENCIES WHICH LEAD TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH OR HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE. FEEL THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT DETERMINING MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WOULD BE A CHALLENGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
317 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS KANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ALSO IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND POSSIBLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
718 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

NEZ075-085-200100-
ADAMS NE-WEBSTER NE-
718 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLADEN...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HASTINGS...
  BLADEN...
  BLUE HILL...
  HOLSTEIN...
  AYR...
  ROSELAND...
  JUNIATA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4065 9863 4063 9832 4020 9847 4023 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 190DEG 27KT 4030 9856

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
719 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             2 SE BRUNING            40.32N 97.54W
05/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTED REPORT TIME

&&

REED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
737 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

NEZ087-200100-
THAYER NE-
737 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN THAYER COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUBBELL...OR 36 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GILEAD...
  BELVIDERE...
  ALEXANDRIA...
  BRUNING...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 4001 9761 4035 9760 4035 9744
      4035 9743 4035 9741 4035 9737 4031 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 193DEG 36KT 4008 9747

WESELY