Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.AVIATION...
STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN A WEAKENING PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THEY SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW AND WEST. FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT STORMS GOING UP IN VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT DO TO LATE
MORNINGS LINGERING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION. DRY LINE SHOULD SHIFT
WINDS WEST 22-24Z TIME FRAME AND THEN COLD FRONT BRINGS NW FLOW BY
06Z. STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER DRY LINE PASSES.

80

&&

.UPDATE...
I AM RAISING THE POPS FOR THE METROPLEX EASTWARD TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011/
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AS ENERGY FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT A DRY LINE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WE DO EXPECT ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER GENERALLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO HAMILTON LINE. HOWEVER...
GENEROUS RAINFALL IN MANY NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND MARGINAL WIND
SPEEDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING CRITICAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35
PERCENT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ON THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FORM A BIT FURTHER EAST AND AFFECT LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH HAIL..DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS THE DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT MAY HANG UP IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY
AND BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
A BIT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THE WEATHER PATTER LOOKS QUIET FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  56  85  57  76 /  60  40  10  20   5
WACO, TX              88  64  93  57  82 /  40  20  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             79  62  80  55  72 /  60  60  20  40  30
DENTON, TX            84  56  83  53  75 /  50  40  10  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  84  55  75 /  60  50  10  30  10
DALLAS, TX            84  58  86  57  77 /  60  50  10  20   5
TERRELL, TX           85  62  84  55  77 /  60  60  20  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         86  70  88  57  80 /  60  50  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  95  58  85 /  30  20  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  56  88  53  77 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

80/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF I-35. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AREAS THAT SAW
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY EXPERIENCE NUISANCE PONDING OR
FLASH FLOODING IF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AGAIN TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             2 N MUENSTER            33.68N  97.38W
04/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       COOKE              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     TORNADO          9 ENE STEPHENVILLE      32.28N  98.06W
04/25/2011                   ERATH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             SIVELLS BEND            33.83N  97.25W
04/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
206 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ147-161-251930-
FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-
206 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3140 9628 3138 9631 3137 9632 3135 9634
      3130 9647 3143 9656 3169 9608 3154 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 240DEG 34KT 3140 9641

85/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
212 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW CHALK MOUNTAIN    32.22N  97.95W
04/25/2011                   ERATH              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOCATED AT FM 205 AND FM 2481

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
214 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ122-251945-
VAN ZANDT TX-
214 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CANTON...EDOM...GRAND SALINE
AND VAN.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

LAT...LON 3236 9545 3235 9556 3237 9591 3253 9588
      3276 9574 3272 9566 3273 9563 3272 9561
      3269 9558 3248 9558 3241 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 236DEG 38KT 3245 9564