Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.UPDATE...
I AM RAISING THE POPS FOR THE METROPLEX EASTWARD TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND THESE MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY
/ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION/ WILL BE THE WINDS. ALL THE MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW FAR THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH EAST AND IF A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH LATER TODAY. WILL BRING THE DRYLINE INTO THE TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AND THEN
WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL AND LIFT NORTH BEFORE
REACHING KACT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
DROPPED THE SEVERE WATCH...IN PREPARATION FOR NEW WATCHES WHEN
CONVECTION STARTS TO RE-FIRE LATER THIS MORNING. THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE AN INTENSE SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...PLENTY OF
CAPE...AND PLENTY OF HELICITY. 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY RUNS
DOWN I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS VALID SO
FAR. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011/
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AS ENERGY FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT A DRY LINE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WE DO EXPECT ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER GENERALLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO HAMILTON LINE. HOWEVER...
GENEROUS RAINFALL IN MANY NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND MARGINAL WIND
SPEEDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING CRITICAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35
PERCENT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ON THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FORM A BIT FURTHER EAST AND AFFECT LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH HAIL..DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS THE DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT MAY HANG UP IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY
AND BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
A BIT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THE WEATHER PATTER LOOKS QUIET FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  61  82  59  76 /  60  40  10  10  10
WACO, TX              88  64  88  62  82 /  40  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             79  61  78  60  69 /  60  60  10  40  40
DENTON, TX            84  56  82  53  74 /  50  40  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  59  81  57  73 /  60  50  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  82  61  76 /  60  50  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  65  82  60  75 /  60  60  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         86  66  84  64  77 /  60  50  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            89  64  89  62  81 /  30  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  55  85  52  75 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF I-35. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AREAS THAT SAW
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY EXPERIENCE NUISANCE PONDING OR
FLASH FLOODING IF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AGAIN TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 AM     HAIL             1 S DESOTO              32.57N  96.85W
04/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN GLENN HEIGHTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ119-121-134-251100-
DALLAS TX-KAUFMAN TX-ELLIS TX-
532 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY
  CENTRAL KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 532 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUTCHINS...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMBINE...CRANDALL...
FERRIS...KAUFMAN...PALMER...SEAGOVILLE...TERRELL AND WILMER.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3273 9651 3280 9609 3262 9611 3241 9666
      3255 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 249DEG 35KT 3254 9660

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ122-123-251145-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
608 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RAINS COUNTY
  NORTHERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 608 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF WILLS POINT...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST TAWAKONI...EDGEWOOD...
EMORY...FRUITVALE...GRAND SALINE...WILLS POINT AND LAKE TAWAKONI
STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM.

LAT...LON 3259 9607 3285 9608 3286 9594 3288 9597
      3290 9597 3296 9595 3299 9593 3298 9567
      3296 9565 3272 9562 3270 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1108Z 255DEG 32KT 3272 9604

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             WEATHERFORD             32.77N  97.80W
04/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     HAIL             GARLAND                 32.92N  96.63W
04/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKELS TO QUARTERS. 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS MEASURED WITH
            ANEMOMETER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     HAIL             MESQUITE                32.77N  96.60W
04/25/2011  E0.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER