Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS STORMS ACROSS
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z. SINCE THE LINE IS
BOWING OUT...XPECT VERY STRONG WINDS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY 04Z.
EXPECT MVFR CEILING TO RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE STORM
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 13 AND 17 KNOTS TONIGHT AND BETWEEN 17 AND 20 KNOTS
MONDAY.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABILENE...TO NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE AND BOWIE
AS OF 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE STRONG CAPES...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE WE SEE TRAINING.
ALTHOUGH WE DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HAVE MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY LINE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST...AND WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK
LOW AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  87  64  84  62 /  50  30  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  90  66  89  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             66  83  62  79  61 /  50  60  40  30  50
DENTON, TX            69  87  58  81  56 /  60  30  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  86  62  79  59 /  50  40  30  20  40
DALLAS, TX            70  88  65  83  62 /  50  30  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           69  86  66  82  62 /  30  40  30  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         69  87  67  86  64 /  20  40  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  67  91  62 /  20  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  89  58  85  53 /  70  20  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143.

&&

79/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
753 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-260100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
753 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...BUT AREAS NORTH OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...TO CANTON LINE
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS THAT SAW SOAKING RAINS YESTERDAY MAY
EXPERIENCE WATER ISSUES RANGING FROM NUISANCE PONDING TO FLASH
FLOODING IF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AGAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT EACH DAY.

THE DRY LINE MAY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN STRONG WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL POSSIBLY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING NORTH OF A
COMANCE...CLEBURNE TO CANTON LINE.

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