Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1252 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.AVIATION...
STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN A WEAKENING PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THEY SHOULD PICK BACK UP AS COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW AND WEST. FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT STORMS GOING UP IN VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT DO TO LATE
MORNINGS LINGERING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION. DRY LINE SHOULD SHIFT
WINDS WEST 22-24Z TIME FRAME AND THEN COLD FRONT BRINGS NW FLOW BY
06Z. STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER DRY LINE PASSES.

80

&&

.UPDATE...
I AM RAISING THE POPS FOR THE METROPLEX EASTWARD TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011/
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AS ENERGY FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT A DRY LINE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WE DO EXPECT ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
DANGER GENERALLY WEST OF A BOWIE TO HAMILTON LINE. HOWEVER...
GENEROUS RAINFALL IN MANY NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES AND MARGINAL WIND
SPEEDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING CRITICAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35
PERCENT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ON THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FORM A BIT FURTHER EAST AND AFFECT LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH HAIL..DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS THE DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT MAY HANG UP IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY
AND BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
A BIT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

THE WEATHER PATTER LOOKS QUIET FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  56  85  57  76 /  60  40  10  20   5
WACO, TX              88  64  93  57  82 /  40  20  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             79  62  80  55  72 /  60  60  20  40  30
DENTON, TX            84  56  83  53  75 /  50  40  10  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  84  55  75 /  60  50  10  30  10
DALLAS, TX            84  58  86  57  77 /  60  50  10  20   5
TERRELL, TX           85  62  84  55  77 /  60  60  20  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         86  70  88  57  80 /  60  50  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            89  66  95  58  85 /  30  20  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  56  88  53  77 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

80/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
749 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF I-35. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. AREAS THAT SAW
SOAKING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY EXPERIENCE NUISANCE PONDING OR
FLASH FLOODING IF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AGAIN TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ103-118-119-251715-
DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-DALLAS TX-
1142 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 1142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3300 9684 3299 9668 3280 9683 3272 9707
      3273 9736 3296 9733 3320 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 234DEG 39KT 3287 9715

85/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1144 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     HAIL             TRENTON                 33.43N  96.35W
04/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       FANNIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKELS REPORTED IN TRENTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ119-120-251730-
DALLAS TX-ROCKWALL TX-
1206 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY
  ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MESQUITE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FATE...HEATH...MESQUITE...
ROCKWALL...ROWLETT...ROYSE CITY AND SUNNYVALE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3286 9629 3282 9636 3282 9651 3273 9652
      3270 9658 3284 9670 3299 9649 3298 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 233DEG 44KT 3283 9655

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ094-095-104>107-251800-
LAMAR TX-FANNIN TX-DELTA TX-HUNT TX-COLLIN TX-HOPKINS TX-
1223 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  HUNT COUNTY
  DELTA COUNTY
  HOPKINS COUNTY
  LAMAR COUNTY

AT 1224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF
PARIS TO 11 MILES EAST OF ROCKWALL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BAILEY...BLOSSOM...CADDO
MILLS...CAMPBELL...CELESTE...COMMERCE...COMO...COOPER...CUMBY...
FARMERSVILLE...GREENVILLE...HONEY GROVE...PARIS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
WOLFE CITY...WYLIE...COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK AND COOPER LAKE
PARK SOUTH SULPHUR.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3304 9540 3304 9663 3382 9573 3388 9540
      3387 9534 3389 9534 3390 9530 3388 9529
      3386 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 254DEG 52KT 3379 9545 3296 9617

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ121>123-251800-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-KAUFMAN TX-
1228 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY
  RAINS COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 1228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
TERRELL TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILLS POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EAST TAWAKONI...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...FRUITVALE...TERRELL...WILLS POINT AND LAKE
TAWAKONI STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3258 9581 3273 9650 3283 9636 3283 9630
      3285 9629 3285 9595 3288 9597 3290 9597
      3299 9593 3299 9567 3296 9565 3277 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 230DEG 43KT 3277 9631 3272 9592

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ091-251830-
MONTAGUE TX-
1256 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 1257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF BOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...NOCONA...ST. JO...
FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3397 9759 3392 9758 3391 9755 3393 9751
      3390 9747 3353 9748 3348 9787 3363 9798
      3398 9761 3398 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 239DEG 33KT 3360 9782

85/NH