Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG EXCEPT IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HELPED TO
LOCALLY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IS ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. ALOFT...WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE STRETCHED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONTINUED MAINLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS SOME HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW PLUS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE WEAKNESS...FEEL THAT
ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER POPS IS THE WAY TO GO. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA BOTH DAYS...SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHERE UPPER RIDGE STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE. SURFACE WEAKNESS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS EACH DAY CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS... WITH THIS AND HIGH PW VALUES SOME AREAS
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT INDICES FLIRT WITH THE
100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE METRO...AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. MET HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV SO
LEANED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECT MET VALUES FOR SHORT-TERM TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WANT TO BEGIN DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT
SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN TEMPS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW TAF SITES
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BUT THEY SHOULD ALL BE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN
AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
WEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH VERY STRONG GUST TO
40 OR 50KTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 02Z-03Z. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  94  70  93 /  40  50  30  50
ATLANTA         73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  84 /  40  60  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  67  93 /  40  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  72  94 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     72  91  72  90 /  40  60  50  50
MACON           72  95  71  95 /  30  40  30  30
ROME            71  92  69  93 /  40  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  69  92 /  40  50  30  40
VIDALIA         72  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ020-021-031-032-042315-
641 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK TO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF DALLAS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BURNT HICKORY
RIDGE...EMERSON...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...CARTERSVILLE...GEORGE
WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK...DALLAS...SUTALLEE...ACWORTH...CROSS
ROADS...KELLOGG CREEK...LITTLE RIVER LANDING...NEW HOPE...HOBGOOD
PARK...BRIDGEMILL AND OAK GROVE. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8496 3422 8483 3423 8438 3407 8446
      3391 8464 3392 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 267DEG 15KT 3417 8465 3406 8474
          3396 8490

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001-002-042315-
648 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER STEPHENSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MORGANVILLE...STEPHENSVILLE...WILDWOOD...
NEW ENGLAND...TRENTON...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK...
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...CEDAR GROVE...FAIRVIEW...COOPER HEIGHTS...
CHICKAMAUGA...SUTTLES MILL...NAOMI AND CENTER POST. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8527 3492 8526 3486 8526 3485 8524
      3459 8517 3459 8552 3474 8555 3497 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 299DEG 22KT 3486 8553

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ096-097-109-042315-
649 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YONKERS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DUBOIS...GRESSTON...
RODDY...EMPIRE...YONKERS...REBIE...ROWLAND...CHESTER...PLAINFIELD...D
EXTER AND CADWELL. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER
FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8298 3223 8302 3229 8334 3247 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 279DEG 9KT 3237 8322

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
703 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ013>016-021>023-042330-
703 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SAUTEE TO SILVER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE...PICKENS...LUMPKIN...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FORSYTH AND
HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE QUALATCHEE LAKE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION AREA...
CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...UNICOI STATE PARK...ANNA RUBY FALLS...
ROBERTSTOWN...HELEN...SAUTEE...DAHLONEGA...HIGHTOWER...DREW...
DUCKTOWN...MATT...SILVER CITY AND DAWSONVILLE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8363 3473 8362 3465 8365 3463 8363
      3460 8364 3454 8361 3445 8375 3414 8416
      3427 8438 3453 8412 3479 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 284DEG 8KT 3466 8368 3451 8401
          3432 8413

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     LIGHTNING        1 E BALL GROUND         34.34N 84.36W
07/04/2011                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ004-005-012-019-020-030>032-043-042345-
713 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
WHITFIELD...POLK...PAULDING...MURRAY...BARTOW...COBB...DOUGLAS...
FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16 MILES EAST OF EMERSON TO HIRAM...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITFIELD...POLK...PAULDING...MURRAY...BARTOW...COBB...
DOUGLAS...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DUE WEST...LOST
MOUNTAIN PARK...BROWNSVILLE...HIRAM...DALLAS...NEW HOPE...CROSS
ROADS...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...EMERSON...POWDER SPRINGS...JIM R MILLER
PARK...AUSTELL AND MABLETON. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8473 3414 8473 3382 8454 3378 8483
      3410 8502 3469 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 283DEG 19KT 3416 8447 3399 8456
          3386 8473