Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOWS
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS RESIDED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN
IMPORTANT IMPLICATION FOR TODAYS FORECAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH...STILL SEEING ACTIVITY FEEDING OFF RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS BUT
EXPECT THIS TO END SOON WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...RUC
ANALYZED MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 590 DM HIGH OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS EASTWARD EXTENT AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY KEEPING SUNDAYS POPS TEMPERED FROM
WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR TODAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE
NORTHWARD WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AT 750 MB INFILTRATING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...TROUGH DRIFTS NORTH TO TAKE RESIDENCE
OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF CONFIRM THIS
SETUP...PRODUCING ACTIVITY EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER INCLUDING
THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A SEPARATE AREA OVER COLUMBUS AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST CWA CITIES
IS INDICATED BY THE WRF AS WELL...MAKING ONLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN ANTICIPATED
STORM MODE AS INSTABILITIES REMAIN MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 500 TEMPS REFLECT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. OF NOTE IS THE LOW STEERING
WIND VALUES THAT SHOULD BE REPRESENTED TODAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY STATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT BEING THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS FOR TUE AND WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED POPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE DRY CONTINUES TO LIMIT
POPS FOR THE SE CORNER. WILL INDICATE A SHARP POP GRADIENT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE THE SAME RESULT ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NOTED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS
PLENTIFUL AND SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MID LEVELS DO SHOW 593DM HIGH BUILDING SUNDAY WHICH
COULD LIMIT ACTIVITY...BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THIS FEATURE
SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CLIMO POP COVERAGE.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW TAF SITES
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BUT THEY SHOULD ALL BE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN
AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
WEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH VERY STRONG GUST TO
40 OR 50KTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 02Z-03Z. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  71  95  71 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  73  92  73 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     89  65  87  66 /  40  40  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  68  93  68 /  40  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        95  73  94  73 /  60  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  92  72 /  40  40  50  30
MACON           95  71  95  72 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            95  70  95  69 /  40  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  92  69  92  69 /  40  30  40  30
VIDALIA         94  73  96  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ069>071-041830-
154 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN MONROE...
LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCK TO RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MONROE...LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RUSSELLVILLE...
YATESVILLE...THE ROCK...REDBONE...BRENT...BOLINGBROKE...COLLIER AND
FORSYTH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8403 3302 8378 3296 8376 3286 8395
      3289 8412 3295 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 247DEG 14KT 3298 8417 3293 8402
          3294 8395

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