Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG EXCEPT IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HELPED TO
LOCALLY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IS ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. ALOFT...WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE STRETCHED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONTINUED MAINLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS SOME HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW PLUS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE WEAKNESS...FEEL THAT
ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER POPS IS THE WAY TO GO. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA BOTH DAYS...SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHERE UPPER RIDGE STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE. SURFACE WEAKNESS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS EACH DAY CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS... WITH THIS AND HIGH PW VALUES SOME AREAS
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT INDICES FLIRT WITH THE
100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE METRO...AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. MET HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV SO
LEANED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECT MET VALUES FOR SHORT-TERM TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WANT TO BEGIN DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT
SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN TEMPS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW TAF SITES
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BUT THEY SHOULD ALL BE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN
AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
WEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH VERY STRONG GUST TO
40 OR 50KTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 02Z-03Z. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  94  70  93 /  40  50  30  50
ATLANTA         73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  84 /  40  60  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  67  93 /  40  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  72  94 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     72  91  72  90 /  40  60  50  50
MACON           72  95  71  95 /  30  40  30  30
ROME            71  92  69  93 /  40  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  69  92 /  40  50  30  40
VIDALIA         72  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
604 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W BLAIRSVILLE         34.88N 84.08W
07/04/2011                   UNION              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON OLD HIGHWAY 76 WEST OF BLAIRSVILLE.

&&

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ020-021-030>032-042245-
618 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUTALLEE TO ANTIOCH...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH
645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ANTIOCH...VAN WERT...ROCKMART...STILESBORO...CARTERSVILLE...LAKE
ARROWHEAD...BRASWELL...EMERSON...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
YORKVILLE...WALESKA...SUTALLEE...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...GEORGE
WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK AND ACWORTH. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8497 3432 8467 3434 8426 3431 8426
      3408 8453 3391 8485 3390 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 267DEG 19KT 3426 8463 3407 8485
          3395 8509

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ014>016-022-023-042300-
631 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WHITE...
LUMPKIN...DAWSON...FORSYTH AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROBERTSTOWN TO 6 MILES WEST OF DUCKTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE...LUMPKIN...DAWSON...FORSYTH AND HALL COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LOW
GAP SHELTER...WHITLEY GAP SHELTER...CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...TURNERS
CORNER...AURARIA...DAHLONEGA...PORTER SPRINGS...HIGHTOWER...
DAWSONVILLE...QUALATCHEE LAKE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION
AREA...UNICOI STATE PARK...ANNA RUBY FALLS...ROBERTSTOWN AND
GARLAND. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8363 3473 8362 3465 8365 3454 8362
      3448 8367 3415 8409 3415 8426 3432 8426
      3448 8409 3473 8388 3473 8383 3478 8383
      3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 270DEG 17KT 3475 8375 3448 8398
          3421 8432

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ020-021-031-032-042315-
641 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK TO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF DALLAS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BURNT HICKORY
RIDGE...EMERSON...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...CARTERSVILLE...GEORGE
WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK...DALLAS...SUTALLEE...ACWORTH...CROSS
ROADS...KELLOGG CREEK...LITTLE RIVER LANDING...NEW HOPE...HOBGOOD
PARK...BRIDGEMILL AND OAK GROVE. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO
SEEK SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8496 3422 8483 3423 8438 3407 8446
      3391 8464 3392 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 267DEG 15KT 3417 8465 3406 8474
          3396 8490

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001-002-042315-
648 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER STEPHENSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MORGANVILLE...STEPHENSVILLE...WILDWOOD...
NEW ENGLAND...TRENTON...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK...
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...CEDAR GROVE...FAIRVIEW...COOPER HEIGHTS...
CHICKAMAUGA...SUTTLES MILL...NAOMI AND CENTER POST. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8527 3492 8526 3486 8526 3485 8524
      3459 8517 3459 8552 3474 8555 3497 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 299DEG 22KT 3486 8553

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ096-097-109-042315-
649 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER YONKERS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DUBOIS...GRESSTON...
RODDY...EMPIRE...YONKERS...REBIE...ROWLAND...CHESTER...PLAINFIELD...D
EXTER AND CADWELL. PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER
FROM LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS APPROACH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8298 3223 8302 3229 8334 3247 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 279DEG 9KT 3237 8322