Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG EXCEPT IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HELPED TO
LOCALLY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IS ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. ALOFT...WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE STRETCHED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONTINUED MAINLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS SOME HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW PLUS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE WEAKNESS...FEEL THAT
ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER POPS IS THE WAY TO GO. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA BOTH DAYS...SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHERE UPPER RIDGE STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE. SURFACE WEAKNESS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS EACH DAY CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS... WITH THIS AND HIGH PW VALUES SOME AREAS
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT INDICES FLIRT WITH THE
100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE METRO...AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. MET HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV SO
LEANED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECT MET VALUES FOR SHORT-TERM TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WANT TO BEGIN DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT
SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN TEMPS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE STATE. A FEW TAF SITES
HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BUT THEY SHOULD ALL BE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN
AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
WEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH VERY STRONG GUST TO
40 OR 50KTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 02Z-03Z. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  94  70  93 /  40  50  30  50
ATLANTA         73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  84 /  40  60  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  67  93 /  40  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  72  94 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     72  91  72  90 /  40  60  50  50
MACON           72  95  71  95 /  30  40  30  30
ROME            71  92  69  93 /  40  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  69  92 /  40  50  30  40
VIDALIA         72  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ034-035-045>048-042030-
346 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN WALTON...
ROCKDALE...NEWTON...BARROW...DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BETHLEHEM TO KLONDIKE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WALTON...ROCKDALE...NEWTON...BARROW...DEKALB AND GWINNETT
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE KLONDIKE...PANOLA MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...BIG HAYNES
CREEK PARK...LAKEVIEW ESTATES...WINDSOR...LOGANVILLE...BOLD
SPRINGS...FORT YARGO STATE PARK...WINDER...BETHLEHEM...ROSEBUD...
ARABIA MOUNTAIN...LITHONIA...YOUTH AND NICHOLASVILLE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8375 3389 8363 3384 8356 3358 8393
      3360 8416 3365 8419 3365 8422 3363 8423
      3363 8424 3365 8424 3384 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 271DEG 9KT 3394 8368 3383 8381
          3363 8409

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
419 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ039-049>051-042045-
419 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN WILKES...
TALIAFERRO...MORGAN AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER VEAZEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS WILKES...TALIAFERRO...MORGAN AND GREENE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND LIBERTY...REYNOLDS PLANTATION...
VEAZEY...CAREY...PENFIELD...GRESHAMVILLE...GREENSBORO...PARKS MILL...
SWORDS...BUCKHEAD...WOODVILLE...WHITE PLAINS...UNION POINT...SILOAM
AND JACKSONVILLE. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8300 3347 8301 3343 8306 3340 8314
      3340 8324 3348 8328 3345 8350 3363 8349
      3371 8314 3370 8311 3371 8305 3369 8300
      3373 8295 3376 8296 3380 8278 3354 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 257DEG 27KT 3350 8311

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
426 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N MCINTYRE            32.92N 83.19W
07/04/2011                   WILKINSON          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN JUST OFF HIGHWAY 441 NORTH OF
            MCINTYRE.

&&

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ053-054-056-067-068-042100-
432 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN
SPALDING...PIKE...MERIWETHER...COWETA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HARALSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE...MERIWETHER...COWETA AND
FAYETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND ROCKY MOUNT...TURIN...
SHARPSBURG...WOOSTER...ALVATON...HARALSON...GAY...SENOIA...HILLTOP...
HOLLONVILLE...DIGBEY AND BROOKS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8440 3305 8445 3314 8476 3336 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 278DEG 11KT 3322 8463