Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE ...
STORMS ARE SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND ACROSS NORTH GA...AND
BEGINNING TO CLUSTER INTO MAINLY MODERATE RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE CLEARED ALL
COUNTIES FROM SVR WATCH NUMBER 478 THAT WAS ACROSS NORTH GA. WILL
HOLD ONTO SVR WATCH NUMBER 481 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD CANCELING THIS WATCH EARLY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THIS AREA AS EXPECTED. /39

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENTLY
LIES EAST OF DALTON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE GREATER THREAT NOW GENERALLY NORTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE... WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING (9-10PM) WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL GA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRIER WNW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV LOWS AND MET HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SETTLES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS A CONVECTIVE LIMITING INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IT APPEARS THE EASTERN ZONES THAT LIE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE THE SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EACH DAY AS A STORM COULD POP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TIMING OF CONVECTION COMBINED WITH WIND DIRECTION AFTER PASSAGE
OF STORMS IS CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST. ONCE LINE OF STORMS
CLEARS NORTHERN TAF SITES...WINDS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE NE DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08-12Z. CB NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOUTHERN SITES
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PCPN AND WINDS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  92  66  95 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         71  93  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  87  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  96  71  95 /  40  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     68  91  69  92 /  50  20  20  20
MACON           70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            66  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  66  93  67  94 /  50  20  20  20
VIDALIA         72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1250 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINED ACROSS THE REGION.
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WAS TRAVERSING THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. PENNY
TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN...TO PEACHTREE CITY...TO ATHENS.

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXTENSIVE
COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE ALLOWED THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...LEAVING NORTH GEORGIA MAINLY WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO COOL...THE
INTENSITY AND NUMBER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH 4 AM EDT. THEREAFTER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

19

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