Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE ...
STORMS ARE SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND ACROSS NORTH GA...AND
BEGINNING TO CLUSTER INTO MAINLY MODERATE RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE CLEARED ALL
COUNTIES FROM SVR WATCH NUMBER 478 THAT WAS ACROSS NORTH GA. WILL
HOLD ONTO SVR WATCH NUMBER 481 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD CANCELING THIS WATCH EARLY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THIS AREA AS EXPECTED. /39

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENTLY
LIES EAST OF DALTON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE GREATER THREAT NOW GENERALLY NORTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE... WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING (9-10PM) WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL GA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRIER WNW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV LOWS AND MET HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SETTLES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS A CONVECTIVE LIMITING INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IT APPEARS THE EASTERN ZONES THAT LIE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE THE SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EACH DAY AS A STORM COULD POP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TIMING OF CONVECTION COMBINED WITH WIND DIRECTION AFTER PASSAGE
OF STORMS IS CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST. ONCE LINE OF STORMS
CLEARS NORTHERN TAF SITES...WINDS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE NE DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08-12Z. CB NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOUTHERN SITES
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PCPN AND WINDS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  92  66  95 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         71  93  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  87  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  96  71  95 /  40  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     68  91  69  92 /  50  20  20  20
MACON           70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            66  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  66  93  67  94 /  50  20  20  20
VIDALIA         72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AROUND 1 PM EDT...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING
ATLANTA AROUND 6 PM EDT AND MACON BY 10 PM EDT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN...TO
ALPHARETTA...TO GAINESVILLE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 10 PM EDT.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UNUSUALLY STRONG SHEAR FOR MID-JUNE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. BY
EVENING...35 TO 40 KNOTS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL
INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...CAPE VALUES
WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS -8
IN THIS SAME REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
MIDDLE GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 3 PM EDT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AFTER 7 PM EDT TODAY. SPOTTERS CAN ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
938 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             CEDARTOWN               34.01N 85.25W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       POLK               GA   911 CALL CENTER

&&

DDARBE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1009 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             4 NNW WALNUT GROVE      33.79N 83.87W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       WALTON             GA   COCORAHS

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1017 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ053>058-067-068-070-071-160245-
1017 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...PIKE...MONROE...MERIWETHER...LAMAR...BUTTS...COWETA...
FAYETTE...HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1013 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM STARK TO CANNONGATE...MOVING SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE...MONROE...MERIWETHER...LAMAR...BUTTS...
COWETA...FAYETTE...HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TYRONE...STARK...
WORTHVILLE...JENKINSBURG...WALKER MILL...BIRDIE...HIGHLAND MILLS...
TOWALAGA...VAUGHN...SUNNY SIDE...LUELLA...LOCUST GROVE...LAKE
HORTON...INMAN AND WOOLSEY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8477 3350 8460 3337 8431 3341 8389
      3329 8383 3301 8391 3301 8444 3315 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 014DEG 28KT 3331 8393 3326 8434
          3343 8468

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1024 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ086-098-160300-
1024 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TREUTLEN AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1019 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14 MILES EAST OF GARFIELD TO NORRISTOWN
JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TREUTLEN AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NORRISTOWN
JUNCTION...CANOOCHEE...GARFIELD...SWAINSBORO...ADRIAN...TWIN
CITY...GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...NORRISTOWN...COVENA...GILLIS
SPRINGS...LEXSY...NUNEZ...FIVE POINTS...STILLMORE AND OAK PARK.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3255 8208 3251 8215 3236 8224
      3232 8223 3229 8231 3229 8235 3232 8236
      3235 8241 3234 8250 3252 8262 3253 8257
      3258 8260 3262 8253 3265 8226 3270 8209
      3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 331DEG 25KT 3267 8184 3257 8221
          3253 8252

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1026 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S MADISON             33.54N 83.47W
06/15/2011                   MORGAN             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MORGAN COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A FEW TREES DOWN IN
            THE COUNTY. DISPATCH ALSO REPORTS POWER OUTAGES IN FOUR
            PARTS OF THE COUNTY.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ019>021-030>032-041-160315-
1031 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN POLK...
PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...COBB...FLOYD AND HARALSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1029 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM WALESKA TO FELTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...COBB...FLOYD AND
HARALSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE ANTIOCH...SENEY...FISH CREEK...ESOM HILL...
ETNA...ARAGON...CEDARTOWN...WALESKA...LAKE ARROWHEAD...SALACOA
VALLEY...TAYLORSVILLE...STILESBORO...CARTERSVILLE...EUHARLEE AND
KINGSTON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8542 3431 8479 3440 8458 3438 8458
      3439 8443 3437 8440 3435 8426 3419 8426
      3417 8435 3413 8436 3411 8442 3408 8442
      3379 8494 3381 8504 3376 8506 3388 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 270DEG 23KT 3431 8451 3391 8522