Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.UPDATE ...
STORMS ARE SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND ACROSS NORTH GA...AND
BEGINNING TO CLUSTER INTO MAINLY MODERATE RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE CLEARED ALL
COUNTIES FROM SVR WATCH NUMBER 478 THAT WAS ACROSS NORTH GA. WILL
HOLD ONTO SVR WATCH NUMBER 481 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD CANCELING THIS WATCH EARLY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THIS AREA AS EXPECTED. /39

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENTLY
LIES EAST OF DALTON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE GREATER THREAT NOW GENERALLY NORTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE... WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING (9-10PM) WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL GA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRIER WNW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV LOWS AND MET HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SETTLES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS A CONVECTIVE LIMITING INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IT APPEARS THE EASTERN ZONES THAT LIE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE THE SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EACH DAY AS A STORM COULD POP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TIMING OF CONVECTION COMBINED WITH WIND DIRECTION AFTER PASSAGE
OF STORMS IS CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST. ONCE LINE OF STORMS
CLEARS NORTHERN TAF SITES...WINDS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE NE DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08-12Z. CB NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOUTHERN SITES
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PCPN AND WINDS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  92  66  95 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         71  93  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  87  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  96  71  95 /  40  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     68  91  69  92 /  50  20  20  20
MACON           70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            66  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  66  93  67  94 /  50  20  20  20
VIDALIA         72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170245-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1033 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
PEACH STATE TONIGHT. THESE SHORTWAVES ACT AS A CATALYST FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TONIGHT FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND
INTERACTIONS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAKE CENTRAL GEORGIA
A BETTER AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
SPOTTERS IN NORTH GEORGIA ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR AND FORWARD
REPORTS. SPOTTERS CAN ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ONLINE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

RAG/10

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1121 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             4 NNW SOPERTON          32.43N 82.62W
06/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       TREUTLEN           GA   PUBLIC

&&

AGIBBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ089>093-102>108-110-160415-
1125 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WILCOX...
WEBSTER...TELFAIR...SUMTER...STEWART...SCHLEY...PULASKI...MUSCOGEE...
MARION...MACON...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
AM EDT...

AT 1117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FROM FLAT ROCK TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF OCMULGEE BANKS...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.  THESE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAUSED THEM.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WILCOX...WEBSTER...TELFAIR...SUMTER...STEWART...SCHLEY...PULASKI...
MUSCOGEE...MARION...MACON...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP AND DOOLY COUNTIES
THROUGH 1215 AM EDT.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8394 3191 8394 3191 8409 3215 8495
      3227 8490 3231 8497 3260 8501 3248 8441
      3237 8432 3242 8418 3229 8384 3230 8337
      3218 8330 3198 8329 3190 8320 3196 8314
      3181 8312 3185 8360 3180 8362 3180 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 354DEG 37KT 3252 8490 3217 8365
          3219 8327