Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENTLY
LIES EAST OF DALTON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES
COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
MUCH OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND A 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE GREATER THREAT NOW GENERALLY NORTH
OF A CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER LINE... WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STRONG STORMS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING (9-10PM) WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID-LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO CENTRAL GA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DRIER WNW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV LOWS AND MET HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SETTLES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS A CONVECTIVE LIMITING INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. IT APPEARS THE EASTERN ZONES THAT LIE
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE THE SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ALL ZONES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EACH DAY AS A STORM COULD POP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TIMING OF CONVECTION COMBINED WITH WIND DIRECTION AFTER PASSAGE
OF STORMS IS CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST. ONCE LINE OF STORMS
CLEARS NORTHERN TAF SITES...WINDS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE NE DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS. SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN
08-12Z. CB NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOUTHERN SITES HAVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PCPN AND WINDS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  92  66  95 /  50  20  20  20
ATLANTA         71  93  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  87  58  87 /  60  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    65  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  96  71  95 /  40  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     68  91  69  92 /  50  20  20  20
MACON           70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            66  93  65  93 /  60  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  66  93  67  94 /  50  20  20  20
VIDALIA         72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1255 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AROUND 1 PM EDT...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING
ATLANTA AROUND 6 PM EDT AND MACON BY 10 PM EDT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN...TO
ALPHARETTA...TO GAINESVILLE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 10 PM EDT.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UNUSUALLY STRONG SHEAR FOR MID-JUNE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. BY
EVENING...35 TO 40 KNOTS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL
INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S...CAPE VALUES
WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS -8
IN THIS SAME REGION. THIS COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
MIDDLE GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 3 PM EDT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AFTER 7 PM EDT TODAY. SPOTTERS CAN ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ049-160045-
814 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 805 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARD LABOR CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8328 3349 8328 3348 8330 3344 8352
      3362 8367 3379 8353 3377 8346 3372 8344
      3366 8337 3360 8335 3354 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 294DEG 37KT 3370 8354

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ020-021-160045-
832 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN BARTOW AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CARTERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
BARTOW AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EMERSON...CARTERSVILLE...CASSVILLE...
GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND
WHITE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8466 3414 8465 3411 8466 3408 8476
      3408 8488 3421 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 246DEG 33KT 3417 8478

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
834 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             2 ENE NEW HOPE          33.97N 84.75W
06/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       PAULDING           GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
836 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

GAZ002-011-160100-
836 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WALKER AND
CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 832 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTER POST...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WALKER AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CEDAR GROVE...CENTER
POST...LAFAYETTE...LINWOOD...SUBLIGNA...NAOMI...SUTTLES MILL AND
VILLANOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8546 3475 8516 3473 8517 3472 8517
      3472 8505 3459 8506 3459 8510 3454 8513
      3456 8546 3456 8547 3472 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 271DEG 32KT 3465 8536