Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Kansas City, MO

253 
WWUS53 KEAX 220201
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
901 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSC005-103-MOC021-165-220215-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-110522T0215Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
901 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PLATTE...SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...EASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTHERN
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 856 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EASTON...OR 8 MILES EAST OF NORTONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ATCHISON...RUSHVILLE...LOWEMONT...LEWIS AND CLARK VILLAGE...BEAN 
LAKE... IATAN AND FORT LEAVENWORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A
TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9510 3962 9510 3962 9506 3965 9504
      3966 9501 3933 9491 3930 9518 3941 9519
      3942 9540 3953 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 246DEG 30KT 3942 9514
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

CDB

874 
WWUS53 KEAX 220216
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
916 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSC005-103-MOC021-165-220226-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-110522T0215Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-PLATTE MO-
916 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...EASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.


LAT...LON 3963 9510 3962 9510 3962 9506 3965 9504
      3966 9501 3933 9491 3930 9518 3941 9519
      3942 9540 3953 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 246DEG 30KT 3942 9514

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL VORTEX AND COLD CORE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE AND H5 CAA (AROUND -19C LOBE) PROPAGATING INTO NRN KANSAS ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MORE NOTABLE H8
FRONTOGENESIS AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO BREACH
THE ELEVATED INHIBITION LAYER SAMPLED ON BOTH THE 12Z KTOP AND KOMA
SOUNDINGS. VIRTUALLY ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN/ERN KANSAS...AND GIVEN WARM
SECTOR ANALYSIS OF WEAKLY CAPPED 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY ALREADY AT
19Z AS WELL AS WV/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE PRESENTATION...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE CORRECT AVENUE.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30KT) CURRENTLY
SITS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF WOULD BE CONSIDERED SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE...VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5
DELTA T AOA 8 C/KM) AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
HAIL GROWTH REGION (BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG) WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE
HAIL WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT. ONLY THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR
AND A WEAKER MIDLEVEL ROTATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS
WOULD PRECLUDE A MORE PREVALENT AND LONG LASTING THREAT FOR GIANT
HAIL PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAKER SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALSO INDICATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO CONGEAL THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE TOOLS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NWRN 1/4 OF MISSOURI WOULD BE AT MOST RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.

ANY STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY PROPAGATE OFF THE TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG OUTFLOW INTO CNTRL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE MAKES THIS A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW OR
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER WOULD ACT AS THE FOCUS AND TRIGGER
FOR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT OF THIS OCCURRING FROM EAST CNTRL KANSAS THROUGH CNTRL
MISSOURI. BOTH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY THAN TODAY (0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT AND
MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG)...LEADING TO THE THOUGHT THAT EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR TYPE SYSTEM PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE COMPLEX QUICKLY MOVES INTO SRN AND ERN MISSOURI BY THE
EVENING. RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE CWA BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE
TEMPORALLY SHORTLY...THOUGH IMPACTS POTENTIALLY GREATER GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION.

IN A SIMILAR DIURNAL CYCLE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO HAVE THE NEXT WEAK PERTURBATION EJECT OUT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEPT INHERITED HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
AM CONCERNED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY ACTUALLY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN COARSER GRID SCALE MODELS CAN RESOLVE.
REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BECOME ENTRENCHED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME...LIMITING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT.

21

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH WILL PRODUCE TSRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL DRY THE CWA OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. A FEW OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
NEARS. HOWEVER CHOSE TO GO DRY FROM THURSDAY ON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES WON'T BE ALL THAT GREAT NOR WILL UPPER FORCING.

BAILEY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN KANSAS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE KMKC TERMINAL IN DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY LOOKS TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION AS STORMS LOOK TO BE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF IT. KMCI WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW FOR
STORMS...BUT THE KSTJ TERMINAL WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TO 04Z. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH TO THE NORTH AND
EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OF ANY OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
GREATEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A DEEP STORM SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT CONTINUOUS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY
EXCEED SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS WELL AS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             4 N EASTON KS           39.40N 95.12W
05/21/2011  M1.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0817 PM     HAIL             2 W EASTON KS           39.35N 95.15W
05/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND GST     IATAN                   39.48N 94.98W
05/21/2011  E50 MPH          PLATTE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR COUNTY ROAD 5. DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED

&&

MDUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
833 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             5 NW LEAVENWORTH        39.38N 94.99W
05/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
834 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ102-MOZ002-011-012-220200-
ANDREW MO-DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-
834 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ANDREW...SOUTHERN
NODAWAY...EASTERN HOLT AND NORTHERN DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 832 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIGHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FOREST CITY...OREGON...FILLMORE...MAITLAND...GRAHAM...ROSENDALE AND
  REA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 80.

LAT...LON 3989 9534 3997 9535 4026 9505 4004 9472
      3975 9521 3986 9535 3988 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 225DEG 34KT 3992 9521

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
837 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             3 E CAMERON             39.74N 94.18W
05/21/2011  M0.50 INCH       CALDWELL           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL FALLING

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             HATFIELD                40.53N 94.15W
05/21/2011  E1.50 INCH       HARRISON           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            50 MPH WINDS REPORTED AS WELL

&&

MDUX