Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319

May 21, 20116 counties in Kansas; 32 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 21, 2011, 5:34 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas; 32 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2011, 5:34 PM CDT (22:34 UTC)
Expired: May 22, 2011, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 38 counties

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

40 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 5:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	40 min
May 21, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison	33 min
May 21, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison	27 min
May 21, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Doniphan	37 min
May 21, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	35 min
May 21, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Doniphan	24 min
May 21, 6:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Doniphan	36 min
May 21, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Doniphan	34 min
May 21, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	33 min
May 21, 7:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Platte	27 min
May 21, 7:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Andrew, Holt	30 min
May 21, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Platte	33 min
May 21, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	31 min
May 21, 7:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	41 min
May 21, 7:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Andrew, DeKalb, Gentry, Nodaway	34 min
May 21, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb	35 min
May 21, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison	44 min
May 21, 8:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway	23 min
May 21, 8:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	22 min
May 21, 8:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Leavenworth	33 min
May 21, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Gentry, Harrison, Worth	26 min
May 21, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Livingston	34 min
May 21, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Platte	36 min
May 21, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	37 min
May 21, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	29 min
May 21, 8:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess, Grundy, Livingston	36 min
May 21, 9:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	32 min
May 21, 9:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb	45 min
May 21, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	37 min
May 21, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Livingston, Mercer, Putnam, Sullivan	37 min
May 21, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	35 min
May 21, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, DeKalb	31 min
May 21, 9:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Leavenworth	25 min
May 21, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Grundy, Mercer, Sullivan	17 min
May 21, 10:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	21 min
May 21, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton	24 min
May 21, 10:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Johnson, Miami	51 min
May 21, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Miami	28 min
May 21, 11:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Miami	31 min
May 21, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson	34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 480 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -193 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 716 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 2:33 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Geary and 18 more	87 min
May 21, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Brown, Chase, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 27 more	9 hr
May 21, 5:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Doniphan	65 min
May 21, 12:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison	114 min
May 21, 6:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.