Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Kansas City, MO

909 
WWUS53 KEAX 220458
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSC091-MOC037-095-220515-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110522T0515Z/
JOHNSON KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO-
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN JACKSON AND
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1215 AM
CDT...

AT 1154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RAYTOWN TO LEE'S SUMMIT TO RAYMORE...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENWOOD...PLEASANT HILL...BLUE SPRINGS...LAKE LOTAWANA...LAKE
  WINNEBAGO AND LAKE TAPAWINGO.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 20.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 65 TO 76.
  I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 9466 3901 9461 3907 9429 3892 9421
      3878 9422 3874 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 260DEG 33KT 3902 9443 3892 9438
          3880 9442
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MJ

481 
WWUS53 KEAX 220512
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSC091-MOC037-095-220522-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110522T0515Z/
JOHNSON KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO-
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3890 9466 3901 9461 3907 9429 3892 9421
      3878 9422 3874 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 260DEG 33KT 3904 9427 3894 9422
          3882 9426

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL VORTEX AND COLD CORE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE AND H5 CAA (AROUND -19C LOBE) PROPAGATING INTO NRN KANSAS ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MORE NOTABLE H8
FRONTOGENESIS AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO BREACH
THE ELEVATED INHIBITION LAYER SAMPLED ON BOTH THE 12Z KTOP AND KOMA
SOUNDINGS. VIRTUALLY ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN/ERN KANSAS...AND GIVEN WARM
SECTOR ANALYSIS OF WEAKLY CAPPED 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY ALREADY AT
19Z AS WELL AS WV/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE PRESENTATION...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE CORRECT AVENUE.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30KT) CURRENTLY
SITS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF WOULD BE CONSIDERED SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE...VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5
DELTA T AOA 8 C/KM) AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
HAIL GROWTH REGION (BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG) WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE
HAIL WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT. ONLY THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR
AND A WEAKER MIDLEVEL ROTATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS
WOULD PRECLUDE A MORE PREVALENT AND LONG LASTING THREAT FOR GIANT
HAIL PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAKER SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALSO INDICATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO CONGEAL THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE TOOLS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NWRN 1/4 OF MISSOURI WOULD BE AT MOST RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.

ANY STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY PROPAGATE OFF THE TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG OUTFLOW INTO CNTRL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE MAKES THIS A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW OR
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER WOULD ACT AS THE FOCUS AND TRIGGER
FOR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT OF THIS OCCURRING FROM EAST CNTRL KANSAS THROUGH CNTRL
MISSOURI. BOTH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY THAN TODAY (0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT AND
MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG)...LEADING TO THE THOUGHT THAT EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR TYPE SYSTEM PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE COMPLEX QUICKLY MOVES INTO SRN AND ERN MISSOURI BY THE
EVENING. RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE CWA BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE
TEMPORALLY SHORTLY...THOUGH IMPACTS POTENTIALLY GREATER GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION.

IN A SIMILAR DIURNAL CYCLE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO HAVE THE NEXT WEAK PERTURBATION EJECT OUT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEPT INHERITED HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
AM CONCERNED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY ACTUALLY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN COARSER GRID SCALE MODELS CAN RESOLVE.
REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BECOME ENTRENCHED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME...LIMITING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT.

21

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH WILL PRODUCE TSRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL DRY THE CWA OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. A FEW OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
NEARS. HOWEVER CHOSE TO GO DRY FROM THURSDAY ON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES WON'T BE ALL THAT GREAT NOR WILL UPPER FORCING.

BAILEY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN KANSAS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE KMKC TERMINAL IN DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY LOOKS TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION AS STORMS LOOK TO BE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF IT. KMCI WILL HAVE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW FOR
STORMS...BUT THE KSTJ TERMINAL WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TO 04Z. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH TO THE NORTH AND
EAST THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OF ANY OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
GREATEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A DEEP STORM SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT CONTINUOUS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY
EXCEED SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS WELL AS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             1 NW PLATTE WOODS       39.24N 94.67W
05/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1108 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             1 NW PLATTE WOODS       39.24N 94.67W
05/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

MOZ022>024-220515-
CALDWELL MO-LINN MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON...WESTERN LINN AND
NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1215
AM CDT...

AT 1125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
UTICA AROUND 1135 PM CDT.
CHILLICOTHE AROUND 1140 PM CDT.
WHEELING AROUND 1145 PM CDT.
MEADVILLE AROUND 1150 PM CDT.
LINNEUS AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3979 9305 3961 9362 3961 9376 3960 9376
      3971 9389 3997 9346 3997 9336 4003 9335
      4003 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 243DEG 46KT 3970 9372

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             CHILLICOTHE             39.79N 93.55W
05/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL. WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. TWIGS BROKEN OFF OF
            TREES.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             ROSENDALE               40.04N 94.82W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       ANDREW             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
05/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

KBRONIS