Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 63, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 22, 2011Atchison County, Leavenworth County, Kansas

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at May 22, 2011, 1:27 AM CDT for Atchison County, Leavenworth County, Kansas. It was in force for 32 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2011, 1:27 AM CDT (06:27 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2011, 9:24 AM CDT
In force
32 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Flood severity
Moderate

Counties Atchison County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Stranger Creek at Easton (ESTK1).

Action stage
12 ft
Minor stage
17 ft
Moderate stage
18 ft
Major stage
23 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06891850, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

390 
WGUS43 KEAX 220627
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
  

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC005-103-230627-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0063.110522T0627Z-110524T0125Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1800Z.110523T0125Z.NO/
127 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 18.4 
  FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17                      18.4 THIS AFTERNOON

$$
6 follow-up statements
765 
WGUS83 KEAX 220905
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...COOPER

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...DONIPHAN...
LEAVENWORTH AND IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN...COOPER...PLATTE...
SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-230905-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-110524T1324Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.110521T1410Z.110523T0000Z.110523T1324Z.NO/
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.0 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   24.1   SUN 04 AM   25.0 THIS EVENING

$$

KSC043-MOC003-021-230904-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110524T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  3:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.3 FEET BY 
  MONDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   18.3   SUN 03 AM   20.3 MONDAY EVENING

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-230904-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0064.110523T0400Z-110527T0800Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.110523T0400Z.110524T0600Z.110526T0800Z.NO/
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 23.4 
  FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS ON THE MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ATCHISON        22                      23.4 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-230904-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-110523T0948Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.110521T0003Z.110521T2200Z.110522T0948Z.UU/
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT  3:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THIS MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   17.2   SUN 03 AM   14.0 THIS MORNING

$$

KSC005-103-230904-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0125Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1800Z.110523T0125Z.NO/
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 18.4 
  FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17                      18.4 THIS AFTERNOON

$$
176 
WGUS83 KEAX 221444
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
944 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH 
AND IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN...PLATTE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...

  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...DONIPHAN AND IN 
MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-231444-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110525T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   18.5   SUN 09 AM   19.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-231443-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0064.110523T1559Z-110528T0000Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.110523T1559Z.110525T1200Z.110527T0000Z.NO/
944 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON.
* FROM MONDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 22.9 
  FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS ON THE MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ATCHISON        22     N/A              22.9 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

KSC005-103-231443-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0109Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1800Z.110523T0109Z.NO/
944 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:21 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.4 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17   17.6   SUN 09 AM   18.4 THIS AFTERNOON

$$
142 
WGUS83 KEAX 230010
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...DONIPHAN AND 
IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN...PLATTE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-240010-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110525T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 6:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   18.7   SUN  6 PM   19.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-240009-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0064.110523T1559Z-110528T0000Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.110523T1559Z.110525T1200Z.110527T0000Z.NO/
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON.
* FROM MONDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 11:04 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.9 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS ON THE MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ATCHISON        22   21.2   SUN 11 AM   22.9 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

KSC005-103-240009-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0125Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1912Z.110523T0125Z.NO/
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 6:31 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17   18.0   SUN  7 PM   14.5 EARLY MONDAY MORNING

$$
883 
WGUS83 KEAX 230245
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
945 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH 
AND IN MISSOURI...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...RAY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...DONIPHAN AND 
IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN...PLATTE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-240245-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110525T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
945 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  9:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   18.8   SUN 09 PM   19.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-240244-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0064.110523T1559Z-110528T0000Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.110523T1559Z.110525T1200Z.110527T0000Z.NO/
945 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON.
* FROM MONDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 11:04 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.9 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS ON THE MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ATCHISON        22   21.2   SUN 11 AM   22.9 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

MOC095-107-177-240244-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0065.110524T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPM7.1.ER.110524T0000Z.110527T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
945 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON.
* FROM MONDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 17.9 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS UNPROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  NAPOLEON        17   16.3   SUN 08 PM   18.1 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

$$

KSC005-103-240204-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0204Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1912Z.110523T0204Z.NO/
945 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  6:31 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TONIGHT.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17   18.0   SUN 07 PM   15.4 EARLY MONDAY MORNING

$$
548 
WGUS83 KEAX 230927
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT WAVERLY 
  MISSOURI RIVER AT MIAMI 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...DONIPHAN AND 
IN MISSOURI...ANDREW...BUCHANAN...CARROLL...CHARITON...JACKSON...
LAFAYETTE...PLATTE...RAY...SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC043-MOC003-021-240927-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SJSM7.1.ER.110512T0945Z.110525T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ST JOSEPH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  3:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...BACKWATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER FLOODS PROPERTY 
  ALONG THE NODAWAY RIVER AT NODAWAY MISSOURI.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM ST. 
  JOSEPH OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ST JOSEPH       17   18.8   MON 03 AM   19.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING

$$

KSC005-MOC021-165-240926-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0064.110523T1559Z-110528T0000Z/
/ATCK1.1.ER.110523T1559Z.110525T1200Z.110527T0000Z.NO/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT ATCHISON.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 11:04 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 22.9 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS ON THE MISSOURI SIDE OF THE RIVER 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  ATCHISON        22   21.2   SUN 11 AM   22.9 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

MOC095-107-177-240926-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0065.110524T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPM7.1.ER.110524T0000Z.110527T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON.
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  3:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 17.9 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 17.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS UNPROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  NAPOLEON        17   16.4   MON 03 AM   18.1 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

$$

MOC033-107-195-240926-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0066.110524T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/WVYM7.1.ER.110524T0600Z.110528T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT WAVERLY.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  3:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.7 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  WAVERLY         20   19.5   MON 03 AM   20.8 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-195-240926-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0067.110523T1559Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIAM7.1.ER.110523T1559Z.110525T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MISSOURI RIVER AT MIAMI.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  7:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF LEVEES BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MISSOURI RIVER
  MIAMI           18   16.8   SUN 07 AM   19.3 WEDNESDAY MORNING

$$

KSC005-103-240112-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0112Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1912Z.110523T0112Z.NO/
427 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT  6:31 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  YESTERDAY EVENING.
* AT 18.0 FEET...1ST STREET IN EASTON AND 231ST STREET NORTH AND 
  SOUTH OF EASTON BEGIN TO FLOOD.
* AT 17.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS LOW-LYING FIELDS SOUTH OF EASTON.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17   18.0   SUN 07 PM   10.4 THIS MORNING

$$
492 
WGUS83 KEAX 231424
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
924 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...
 
  STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC005-103-231454-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110524T0112Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.000000T0000Z.110522T1912Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE STRANGER CREEK AT EASTON.
* AT  8:26 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 3.3 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

STRANGER CREEK
  EASTON          17    7.6   MON 08 AM    4.4 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 22, 12:17 AM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 22, 12:17 AM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL VORTEX AND COLD CORE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE AND H5 CAA (AROUND -19C LOBE) PROPAGATING INTO NRN KANSAS ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MORE NOTABLE H8
FRONTOGENESIS AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO BREACH
THE ELEVATED INHIBITION LAYER SAMPLED ON BOTH THE 12Z KTOP AND KOMA
SOUNDINGS. VIRTUALLY ALL OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NRN/ERN KANSAS...AND GIVEN WARM
SECTOR ANALYSIS OF WEAKLY CAPPED 2000 J/KG INSTABILITY ALREADY AT
19Z AS WELL AS WV/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE PRESENTATION...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT THAT THIS IS THE CORRECT AVENUE.

ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30KT) CURRENTLY
SITS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF WOULD BE CONSIDERED SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE...VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5
DELTA T AOA 8 C/KM) AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
HAIL GROWTH REGION (BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG) WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE
HAIL WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT. ONLY THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR
AND A WEAKER MIDLEVEL ROTATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS
WOULD PRECLUDE A MORE PREVALENT AND LONG LASTING THREAT FOR GIANT
HAIL PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
WITH WEAKER SHEAR VALUES WOULD ALSO INDICATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO CONGEAL THIS
EVENING. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE TOOLS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NWRN 1/4 OF MISSOURI WOULD BE AT MOST RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.

ANY STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY PROPAGATE OFF THE TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG OUTFLOW INTO CNTRL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT BEHIND THE EJECTING
WAVE MAKES THIS A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER...ANY OUTFLOW OR
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER WOULD ACT AS THE FOCUS AND TRIGGER
FOR RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT OF THIS OCCURRING FROM EAST CNTRL KANSAS THROUGH CNTRL
MISSOURI. BOTH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY THAN TODAY (0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT AND
MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG)...LEADING TO THE THOUGHT THAT EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH A
TRANSITION TO A LINEAR TYPE SYSTEM PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE COMPLEX QUICKLY MOVES INTO SRN AND ERN MISSOURI BY THE
EVENING. RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE CWA BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE
TEMPORALLY SHORTLY...THOUGH IMPACTS POTENTIALLY GREATER GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION.

IN A SIMILAR DIURNAL CYCLE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO HAVE THE NEXT WEAK PERTURBATION EJECT OUT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEPT INHERITED HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER
AM CONCERNED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY ACTUALLY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN COARSER GRID SCALE MODELS CAN RESOLVE.
REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BECOME ENTRENCHED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME...LIMITING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING THE FLOOD THREAT.

21

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH WILL PRODUCE TSRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE WILL DRY THE CWA OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. A FEW OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
NEARS. HOWEVER CHOSE TO GO DRY FROM THURSDAY ON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES WON'T BE ALL THAT GREAT NOR WILL UPPER FORCING.

BAILEY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STORMS
COULD REDEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IF THEY DO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY OF
THAT ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS ALSO. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS
FORM THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL IN THE VFR RANGE.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX
Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 1:00 PM CDT, 12 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
GREATEST THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK WOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WARM...MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A DEEP STORM SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND NOT CONTINUOUS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY
EXCEED SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY...AS WELL AS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

21

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 11:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     HAIL             MEADVILLE               39.79N 93.30W
05/21/2011  M0.88 INCH       LINN               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MDUX
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:03 AM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

MOZ017-024-025-032-220545-
ADAIR MO-CHARITON MO-LINN MO-MACON MO-
1203 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SOUTHEASTERN LINN AND
NORTHEASTERN CHARITON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA PLATA TO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF LACLEDE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LA PLATA...MARCELINE...MACON...BUCKLIN...BRASHEAR...ATLANTA...
  CALLAO...BEVIER...NEW CAMBRIA AND WIEN.

LAT...LON 3974 9229 3961 9264 3961 9269 3959 9270
      3957 9276 3972 9322 4018 9253 4019 9234
      3996 9234 3995 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 259DEG 46KT 4010 9240 3967 9311

DB
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:11 AM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSZ057-105-MOZ037-043-220600-
CASS MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-
1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 100 AM
CDT...

AT 1210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OLATHE TO
EDGERTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OLATHE...LENEXA...SPRING HILL...OVERLAND PARK...PRAIRIE VILLAGE...
  LEAWOOD...RAYTOWN...GRANDVIEW...BELTON...RAYMORE...LEE'S SUMMIT...
  LACKMANS...STANLEY...STILLWELL AND UNITY VILLAGE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 16.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 204 AND 225.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 0 TO 2...65 TO 83.
  I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3908 9433 3878 9439 3869 9502 3893 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 247DEG 34KT 3891 9482 3873 9492

MJ
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:16 AM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

MOZ031-032-220545-
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHARITON AND SOUTHERN
CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1215 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAVERLY...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CARROLLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...BOSWORTH...BRUNSWICK...WAKENDA...DE WITT AND TRIPLETT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3938 9315 3941 9317 3941 9319 3936 9320
      3931 9334 3926 9341 3927 9345 3929 9347
      3929 9348 3928 9350 3923 9349 3921 9352
      3922 9356 3924 9359 3924 9366 3930 9372
      3958 9324 3942 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 237DEG 46KT 3928 9354

MJ
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:27 AM CDT, 1 hour before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSZ105-MOZ037-043-220600-
CASS MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON KS-
1227 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN CASS
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1225 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BELTON...GRANDVIEW...RAYMORE...LEE'S SUMMIT...STILLWELL...STANLEY
  AND UNITY VILLAGE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 71 TO 76.
  I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 10.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3890 9479 3899 9436 3879 9436 3874 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 254DEG 33KT 3881 9471

MJ
Special weather statement, May 22, 12:29 AM CDT, 58 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KSZ057-105-220600-
JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JOHNSON AND NORTHERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1225 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANTOUL...OR 9 MILES WEST
OF PAOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SPRING HILL...LOUISBURG...HILLSDALE...WAGSTAFF...CHILES...BUCYRUS
  AND STILLWELL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3871 9506 3881 9465 3863 9463 3856 9507
      3860 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 247DEG 36KT 3864 9497

MJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 21, 7:34 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth41 min
May 21, 8:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison44 min
May 21, 8:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth22 min
May 21, 8:12 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXLeavenworth33 min
May 21, 8:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXDoniphan26 min
May 21, 8:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth37 min
May 21, 8:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth29 min
May 21, 9:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth32 min
May 21, 9:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth37 min
May 21, 9:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAtchison26 min
May 21, 9:38 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXAtchison, Doniphan, Leavenworth4 hr
May 21, 9:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth35 min
May 21, 9:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLeavenworth25 min
May 21, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAtchison, Leavenworth21 min
May 21, 10:54 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXJohnson, Miami51 min
May 21, 11:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Miami28 min
May 21, 11:29 PM CDTTornado WarningEAXMiami31 min
May 21, 11:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson34 min
May 22, 4:04 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXAtchison126 days
May 22, 3:23 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXLinn37 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.