Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS State College, PA

814 
WWUS51 KCTP 270000
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
800 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

PAC035-105-270010-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-110527T0030Z/
POTTER PA-CLINTON PA-
800 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CLINTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4161 7687 4159 7676 4157 7646
      4155 7644 4131 7710 4188 7744 4201 7715
      4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 241DEG 48KT 4191 7719 4147 7687

$$

PAC081-113-117-270030-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-110527T0030Z/
SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-LYCOMING PA-
800 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LYCOMING...TIOGA AND NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

AT 752 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KEENEYVILLE TO TROUT RUN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TIOGA JUNCTION AND LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 805 PM EDT...
SHUNK AND LINCOLN FALLS AROUND 810 PM EDT...
MILLERTON AROUND 815 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4161 7687 4159 7676 4157 7646
      4155 7644 4131 7710 4188 7744 4201 7715
      4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 241DEG 48KT 4191 7719 4147 7687

$$

FORECASTER:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS FURTHER...LIKELY BRINGING THE FIRST HEAT EPISODE OF
THE SUMMER SEASON TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH 383 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD...AND CONVECTION JUST STARTING TO POP AT
19Z...AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ATMOSPHERE HAS WARMED UP NICELY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS IN THE WATCH AREA WELL INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS ALSO
NOTICEABLY HIGHER WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70F.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE INITIATING ON A WIND CONVERGENCE LINE
SPLITTING THE WATCH BOX...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS NOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. ONCE CELLS GET STARTED...BEST SHEAR
WILL BE EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...WHERE CAPE IS ALSO HIGHEST. SO EVEN THOUGH STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED...PROFILES DO INDICATE SOME ROTATION TO BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHEAR IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...SO SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD
AGAIN...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE OUR WAY...THOUGH IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THANKS TO UPSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. TOSS IN PW NEAR 1.5" AND SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THOUGH AND IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SLOW/GRADUALLY FILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1- 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME CENTERED NEARLY
NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE
SLIDING EAST/BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY SATURDAY.

MID LEVELS COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY...AND THE WRN EDGE OF
THE STEEPER...6C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SHIFT OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF SUSQ VALLEY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /ALA SPC'S DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA/ OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PENN FRIDAY...MAY EVOLVE TO
MORE OF A TRAINING TSRA/FLASH FLOOD EVENT LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LONG/THINNER CAPE AND VERY DEEP/NEAR
SATURATED AIR.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD 12Z FRI-12Z SAT IS
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND AGREES QUITE WELL WITH HPC'S
LATEST QPF GRAPHICS. TRAINING CELLS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF 2+
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE 1-6 HOUR
PERIODS IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.25 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS. THESE VALUES COULD BE EASILY
EXCEEDED WITH JUST A FEW TRAINING HEAVY TSRA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL RE-FIRE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON /MAINLY OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA/ WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH/WEAKENING CFRONT LIMPING THROUGH CENTRAL PENN.

THE CFRONT WILL DISSOLVE TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY...OR JUST SE OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT...AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES
TO THE NRN ROCKIES.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS /+2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...OR
ABOUT 592-595 DAM/...AND PWATS DECREASING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WILL BRING A 2-3 DAY SPELL OF TRUE MID-SUMMER HEAT FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD RETROGRADE WWD ENOUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK TO ALLOW A CFRONT TO SLIP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE ARE MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR HAZE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AFTER THE STORMS
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA.
SAT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH CHC OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-271900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-271900-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 383 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 N HALIFAX             40.49N  76.93W
05/26/2011  M0.88 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100133

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100134

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARFORDSBURG            39.75N  78.19W
05/26/2011                   FULTON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND REPORT OF BUILDING COLLAPSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100135

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARFORDSBURG            39.75N  78.19W
05/26/2011                   FULTON             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN COUNTY WIDE WITH SOME
            ROAD CLOSURES

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100136

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
719 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE CHAMBERSBURG       39.90N  77.62W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON I 81 NEAR WAYNE EXIT.
            ROAD SIGNS ALSO BLOWN OVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100137

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARLISLE                40.20N  77.20W
05/26/2011                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH TREES SNAPPED

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100138

KREKELER