Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS State College, PA

887 
WWUS51 KCTP 262254
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

PAC013-047-262304-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110526T2330Z/
BLAIR PA-ELK PA-
654 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ELK AND NORTHEASTERN
BLAIR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4146 7760 4137 7754 4118 7729 4064 7808
      4177 7834 4200 7774 4201 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 238DEG 45KT 4181 7823 4077 7800

$$

PAC023-027-033-035-061-083-105-262330-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-110526T2330Z/
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-HUNTINGDON PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-CENTRE PA-
CLINTON PA-
654 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR CLINTON...CENTRAL CENTRE...POTTER...SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN...NORTH
CENTRAL HUNTINGDON...NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD AND CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF ROULETTE TO PORT MATILDA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SNOW SHOE AND PARK FOREST AROUND 700 PM EDT...
UNIONVILLE AND KETTLE CREEK STATE PARK AROUND 705 PM EDT...
MILESBURG AND BELLEFONTE AROUND 710 PM EDT...
TAMARACK AND CROSS FORK AROUND 715 PM EDT...
HOWARD AND BALD EAGLE STATE PARK AROUND 720 PM EDT...
BEECH CREEK AND ULYSSES AROUND 725 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 7760 4137 7754 4118 7729 4064 7808
      4177 7834 4200 7774 4201 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 238DEG 45KT 4181 7823 4077 7800

$$

FORECASTER:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS FURTHER...LIKELY BRINGING THE FIRST HEAT EPISODE OF
THE SUMMER SEASON TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH 383 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA. UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD...AND CONVECTION JUST STARTING TO POP AT
19Z...AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ATMOSPHERE HAS WARMED UP NICELY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS IN THE WATCH AREA WELL INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS ALSO
NOTICEABLY HIGHER WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70F.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE INITIATING ON A WIND CONVERGENCE LINE
SPLITTING THE WATCH BOX...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS NOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE. ONCE CELLS GET STARTED...BEST SHEAR
WILL BE EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...WHERE CAPE IS ALSO HIGHEST. SO EVEN THOUGH STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED...PROFILES DO INDICATE SOME ROTATION TO BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHEAR IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...SO SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD
AGAIN...ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE OUR WAY...THOUGH IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THANKS TO UPSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. TOSS IN PW NEAR 1.5" AND SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THOUGH AND IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SLOW/GRADUALLY FILL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1- 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME CENTERED NEARLY
NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE
SLIDING EAST/BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY SATURDAY.

MID LEVELS COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY...AND THE WRN EDGE OF
THE STEEPER...6C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SHIFT OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF SUSQ VALLEY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /ALA SPC'S DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA/ OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PENN FRIDAY...MAY EVOLVE TO
MORE OF A TRAINING TSRA/FLASH FLOOD EVENT LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LONG/THINNER CAPE AND VERY DEEP/NEAR
SATURATED AIR.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD 12Z FRI-12Z SAT IS
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND AGREES QUITE WELL WITH HPC'S
LATEST QPF GRAPHICS. TRAINING CELLS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF 2+
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE 1-6 HOUR
PERIODS IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.25 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS. THESE VALUES COULD BE EASILY
EXCEEDED WITH JUST A FEW TRAINING HEAVY TSRA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSRA WILL RE-FIRE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON /MAINLY OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA/ WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH/WEAKENING CFRONT LIMPING THROUGH CENTRAL PENN.

THE CFRONT WILL DISSOLVE TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY...OR JUST SE OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT...AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE UPPER PLAINS STATES
TO THE NRN ROCKIES.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS /+2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS...OR
ABOUT 592-595 DAM/...AND PWATS DECREASING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WILL BRING A 2-3 DAY SPELL OF TRUE MID-SUMMER HEAT FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD RETROGRADE WWD ENOUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK TO ALLOW A CFRONT TO SLIP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE ARE MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR HAZE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AFTER THE STORMS
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA.
SAT-TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH CHC OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...RXR/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-271900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-271900-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
258 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 383 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERCERSBURG             39.83N  77.90W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
            SMALL HAIL IN MERCERSBURG AND CHAMBERSBURG.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100123

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 S MUNCY               41.17N  76.79W
05/26/2011  M1.25 INCH       NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUNCY HILLS ON NORTHUMBERLAND AND LYCOMING COUNTY
            BORDER.

0532 PM     HAIL             5 SSW CHAMBERSBURG      39.87N  77.69W
05/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT MARION IN GUILFORD TOWNSHIP

0535 PM     HAIL             CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
05/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERCERSBURG             39.83N  77.90W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER REPORTED TREES DOWN WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
            SMALL HAIL IN MERCERSBURG AND CHAMBERSBURG.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100120 CTP1100121 CTP1100122 CTP1100123

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREENCASTLE             39.79N  77.73W
05/26/2011  M60 MPH          FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST NW AT 60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100124

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW CHAMBERSBURG      39.87N  77.69W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT MARION IN GUILFORD TOWNSHIP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100125

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
626 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 SSW CHAMBERSBURG      39.87N  77.69W
05/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT MARION IN GUILFORD TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100127

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
628 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
05/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100128

MACH