Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ABOUT THE
MASSIVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE RETROGRADES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A MASSIVE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A 5940M HIGH DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST HEAT
EPISODE OF THE SUMMER COULD BEGIN LATER THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE
DISSIPATED...LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PRACTICALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA HAS BOWED OUT/ACCELERATED ACROSS
FAR NERN OHIO DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL TRACK EAST AT 30-35
MPH REACHING EXTREME WESTERN WARREN COUNTY RIGHT AROUND 02Z.

INCREASING 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LINE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE THE TSRA GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN THE COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF KBFD AND KDUJ.

INCREASED CHCS FOR CONVECTION RIGHT UP TO AROUND 100 PERCENT IN
THE 03-06Z TIME-FRAME ACROSS THE NW ZONES...THEN MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT'S THINKING OF MAINLY SCTD SHOWERS/TSRA THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SPC'S LATEST TORNADO WATCH 372 VALID UNTIL 01Z HAS BEEN EXTENDED
EAST TO INCLUDE EXTREME NWRN PENN - ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA EMBEDDED IN THIS LINE COULD BLEED OVER
THE WATCH AREA AND INTO WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES BETWEEN 02-03Z.

SKIES SHOULD STAY CLEAR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSRA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJST...TO KAOO
AND KSEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVER OUR REGION TOMORROW. WE
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CAPE IN THE
1200 TO 1800 JKG-1 RANGE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IMPLY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MOVING WEST TO EAST BY MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE SREF POPS ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND ROLLED BACK
POPS A BIT IN EASTERN AREAS.

STILL...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA IN SLIGHT RISK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY DEEPEST TROF BACK TOWARDS THE PAC NW WITH LONG SW
FETCH ALL THE WAY TOWARDS GREAT LAKES WITH SE RIDGING. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BIG CHANGES BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS PAC NW
TROUGH MOVES E AND DEEPENS OVER ROCKIES AND A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A SEVERAL DAY BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION AND A REAL TASTE OF SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK /TO THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED SW/ AS A COOLER AND DRIER NW
FLOW SETTLES IN. IN ANY CASE A WELCOME DRYING TREND IS ON THE
HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR EARLY PORTION OF TAF PERIOD IS APPROACHING LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO. THESE WILL MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK EAST AT 30-35
MPH...BUT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH KBFD/KDUJ
BETWEEN 02Z-04Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR HAZE AND GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP /WITH A FEW PLACES DIPPING TO IFR FOR A SHORT TIME/
OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM RISK INCREASES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. BUT MAINLY VFR FLYING RULES
DURING THE DAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THUR...LOW CIGS PSBL CNTRL/EAST EARLY IN FOG/HAZE. SCT TSRA AFT 19Z.
FRI-SAT...AM FOG AREAS MVFR/IFR. ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

PAZ004-260200-
WARREN PA-
810 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA...OHIO STATE LINE WILL AFFECT WESTERN WARREN COUNTY
BETWEEN 920 PM AND 10 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OHIO...JUST TO THE WEST OF CONNEAUT AND ANDOVER
OHIO. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH...AND PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SPRING CREEK
AROUND 930 PM...SUGAR GROVE AROUND 945 PM AND RUSSELL AROUND 1000 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62.

LAT...LON 4200 7905 4196 7906 4176 7932 4162 7946
      4162 7961 4163 7962 4197 7962 4200 7961

FORECASTER: LAMBERT