Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Binghamton, NY

119 
WWUS51 KBGM 261953
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NYC011-262002-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110426T2015Z/
CAYUGA NY-
353 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CAYUGA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4297 7575 4290 7601 4288 7617 4312 7632
      4317 7625 4321 7612 4322 7608 4321 7607
      4316 7591 4316 7585 4302 7565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 247DEG 35KT 4309 7592

$$

NYC053-067-262015-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110426T2015Z/
MADISON NY-ONONDAGA NY-
353 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR KIRKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANASTOTA BY 405 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SYRACUSE  
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4297 7575 4290 7601 4288 7617 4312 7632
      4317 7625 4321 7612 4322 7608 4321 7607
      4316 7591 4316 7585 4302 7565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 247DEG 35KT 4309 7592

$$

SLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES BACK IN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AS OF 215 PM (1815Z)... CONVECTIVE LINE COMING INTO CNTRL
NY/N-CNTRL PA FROM THE W...SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS ML CAPES APPROACHING 1500...DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR ARND 40 KT...AND STGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES.
HRRR/OTHER MESO-SCALE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL FOLLOW THIS ONE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING PD. SVR WW #213 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CNTRL
NY/NE PA UNTIL 01Z WED.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE...AS UPPER-LVL FORCING
WANES...AND THE BLYR STABILIZES. AREAS OF LOW CIGS/FOG COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIG RAINFALL OCCURS.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AS OF 10 AM (14Z)... VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NE PA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MORE CLOUD DEBRIS UP
OVER CNTRL NY. SFC ANALYSIS WOULD PLACE THE WARM FRNTL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...MOVING GRADUALLY NWD. STG INSOLATION OVER
NE PA/PTNS OF NY'S SRN TIER THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN SHOULD PROMOTE
FAIRLY ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN FACT...MODIFYING THE 12Z PIT
SOUNDING WOULD POTENTIALLY YIELD ML CAPES OF 1000-1500. IF YOU
COMBINE THIS WITH STRENGTHENING/VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW-
MID LEVELS (NEAR ABV MENTIONED WARM FRONT)...STG/SVR CONVECTION
AGAIN SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN/EVE.

AS FAR AS ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISMS GO...PVA ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF A PROBABLE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED UPPER-LVL WAVE...WAS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS OF LATE MORNING IN WRN PA/NY...WITH MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES/MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS. BY MID-
LATE AFTN...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR WRN/NRN
ZONES...ASSOCD WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHRT WV...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER NE PA/WRN CATSKILLS...CLOSER TO THE
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
WELL INTO THE EVE HOURS.

MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN SEEMS ON TRACK...AS 925/850 TEMPS
AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS SUPPORT 75-80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 220 PM (1820Z)... THIS WILL BE BRIEF...OWING TO
NEAR-TERM SVR WX CONCERNS.

WARM SECTOR AMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...AS OPPOSED TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY. A
SUBTLE UPPER-LVL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SW BY
18Z...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED TO RE-DEVELOP
BY THEN.

LATE WED NIGHT AND THU...WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT TO COME IN FROM THE W. EXPECTED
TIMING...AS OF THIS JUNCTURE...WOULD BRING THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH
EARLIER THU...GENERALLY 12-18Z...AND THIS TIMING COULD REDUCE THE
SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION AT ALL...WOULD AT LEAST PLACE
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSRA THU
AFTN...AS STG FORCING WILL BE AT PLAY. AT ANY RATE...LIKELY POPS
WILL STILL BE UTILIZED THIS PD...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
E BY LATER IN THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MED RNG. CRNT ACTIVE WX
PRECLUDES IN DEPTH DISCUSSION...XPCT LINGERING -SHRA ON
FRIDAY...THEN DRY WX SAT AND SAT NGT. NXT FNTL SYSTEM APRCHS AND
WENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED BY HPC...WITH A CHC FOR -SHRA
SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
XPCT TSRA TO AFFECT CNTRL AND NRN SITES THIS AFTN...SYR IN PATH OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY RME AN HR
LATER. WENT WITH CB GROUPS WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT OTHER SITES
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVNG...WITH POTNL FOR TSRA INTO THE EVNG HRS.
LATER TNGT...XPCT 3-5SM VSBYS IN BR...AND ELM LIKELY TO GO IFR
LATER TNGT IN FOG. GNRLY VFR AFTER 14Z WED MRNG...WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR IN BR...WITH CHC ONCE AGAIN FOR STRONG TSRA TMRW
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

WED/WED NGT...SCT MVFR IN TSRA.

THU NGT/FRI/FRI NGT...SCT MVFR MAINLY CNTRL NY IN SCT SHRA.

SUN...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-072-271815-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ048-271815-
SULLIVAN-PIKE-
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1028 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-262100-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
1028 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 12 NOON AND 3 PM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL...BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR LATER
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NYZ015-016-022>024-261830-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-STEUBEN NY-YATES NY-
124 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEMUNG...SCHUYLER...
SENECA...STEUBEN AND YATES COUNTIES...

* AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF WAYLAND TO AVOCA TO CAMERON TO 8
  MILES SOUTH OF WOODHULL...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHEELER AT 130 PM EDT...
  SAVONA AT 135 PM EDT...
  PRATTSBURG AT 140 PM EDT...
  URBANA AT 145 PM EDT...
  WAYNE AT 150 PM EDT...
  YATESVILLE AT 155 PM EDT...
  WEST ELMIRA AT 205 PM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4259 7738 4268 7737 4277 7731 4277 7698
      4297 7697 4303 7673 4274 7674 4256 7659
      4255 7670 4230 7669 4228 7668 4227 7654
      4216 7653 4215 7656 4211 7656 4199 7699
      4200 7748 4218 7748 4237 7755 4258 7767

MSE