Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Binghamton, NY

Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIT
AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES BACK IN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AS OF 215 PM (1815Z)... CONVECTIVE LINE COMING INTO CNTRL
NY/N-CNTRL PA FROM THE W...SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTN...AS IT ENCOUNTERS ML CAPES APPROACHING 1500...DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR ARND 40 KT...AND STGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES.
HRRR/OTHER MESO-SCALE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL FOLLOW THIS ONE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING PD. SVR WW #213 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CNTRL
NY/NE PA UNTIL 01Z WED.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE...AS UPPER-LVL FORCING
WANES...AND THE BLYR STABILIZES. AREAS OF LOW CIGS/FOG COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIG RAINFALL OCCURS.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AS OF 10 AM (14Z)... VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NE PA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MORE CLOUD DEBRIS UP
OVER CNTRL NY. SFC ANALYSIS WOULD PLACE THE WARM FRNTL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...MOVING GRADUALLY NWD. STG INSOLATION OVER
NE PA/PTNS OF NY'S SRN TIER THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN SHOULD PROMOTE
FAIRLY ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN FACT...MODIFYING THE 12Z PIT
SOUNDING WOULD POTENTIALLY YIELD ML CAPES OF 1000-1500. IF YOU
COMBINE THIS WITH STRENGTHENING/VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW-
MID LEVELS (NEAR ABV MENTIONED WARM FRONT)...STG/SVR CONVECTION
AGAIN SEEMS LIKE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN/EVE.

AS FAR AS ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISMS GO...PVA ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF A PROBABLE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED UPPER-LVL WAVE...WAS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AS OF LATE MORNING IN WRN PA/NY...WITH MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE FINGER LAKES/MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS. BY MID-
LATE AFTN...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR WRN/NRN
ZONES...ASSOCD WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHRT WV...AND
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER NE PA/WRN CATSKILLS...CLOSER TO THE
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
WELL INTO THE EVE HOURS.

MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN SEEMS ON TRACK...AS 925/850 TEMPS
AND EXPECTED MIXING LEVELS SUPPORT 75-80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 220 PM (1820Z)... THIS WILL BE BRIEF...OWING TO
NEAR-TERM SVR WX CONCERNS.

WARM SECTOR AMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...AS OPPOSED TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY. A
SUBTLE UPPER-LVL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SW BY
18Z...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED TO RE-DEVELOP
BY THEN.

LATE WED NIGHT AND THU...WE'RE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT TO COME IN FROM THE W. EXPECTED
TIMING...AS OF THIS JUNCTURE...WOULD BRING THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH
EARLIER THU...GENERALLY 12-18Z...AND THIS TIMING COULD REDUCE THE
SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION AT ALL...WOULD AT LEAST PLACE
THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL SVR TSRA THU
AFTN...AS STG FORCING WILL BE AT PLAY. AT ANY RATE...LIKELY POPS
WILL STILL BE UTILIZED THIS PD...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
E BY LATER IN THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MED RNG. CRNT ACTIVE WX
PRECLUDES IN DEPTH DISCUSSION...XPCT LINGERING -SHRA ON
FRIDAY...THEN DRY WX SAT AND SAT NGT. NXT FNTL SYSTEM APRCHS AND
WENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED BY HPC...WITH A CHC FOR -SHRA
SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
XPCT TSRA TO AFFECT CNTRL AND NRN SITES THIS AFTN...SYR IN PATH OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY RME AN HR
LATER. WENT WITH CB GROUPS WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT OTHER SITES
LATE THIS AFTN OR EVNG...WITH POTNL FOR TSRA INTO THE EVNG HRS.
LATER TNGT...XPCT 3-5SM VSBYS IN BR...AND ELM LIKELY TO GO IFR
LATER TNGT IN FOG. GNRLY VFR AFTER 14Z WED MRNG...WITH SOME
LINGERING MVFR IN BR...WITH CHC ONCE AGAIN FOR STRONG TSRA TMRW
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

WED/WED NGT...SCT MVFR IN TSRA.

THU NGT/FRI/FRI NGT...SCT MVFR MAINLY CNTRL NY IN SCT SHRA.

SUN...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-072-271815-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ048-271815-
SULLIVAN-PIKE-
203 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
446 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             BLOSSVALE               43.28N  75.65W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
502 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             CAMILLUS                43.04N  76.31W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

            HAIL SIZE VARIED FROM 1 INCH TO 1.75 INCH

&&

MJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
503 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             MARCELLUS               42.98N  76.34W
04/26/2011  E1.50 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

&&

MJN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
509 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             SOLVAY                  43.06N  76.21W
04/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJN