Wind Advisory 17, NWS Juneau, AK

782 
WWAK77 PAJK 030506
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
806 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

AKZ024-026>028-030615-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110203T0600Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOON...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...
CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
806 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED TO WHERE THE GUSTS ARE
BELOW 40 MPH. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-031315-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.110203T0506Z-110203T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
806 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH DEVELOPING 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019>023-025-030900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110203T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-GLACIER BAY-
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU
806 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BEZENEK

225 
WWAK77 PAJK 030513
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
813 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

AKZ019>023-025-030900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110203T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-GLACIER BAY-
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU
813 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-031315-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110203T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
813 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH DEVELOPING 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

526 
WWAK77 PAJK 030841
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

AKZ019>023-025-030945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110203T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-GLACIER BAY-
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...
ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU
1141 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED.. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH
BUT A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-031645-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110203T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1141 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH DEVELOPING 
  OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

628 
WWAK77 PAJK 031323
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
423 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

AKZ027-032100-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.110204T0000Z-110204T1300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
423 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
AKST FRIDAY. 


* WIND: SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST/AKDT TODAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-032100-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.110204T0600Z-110204T1300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
423 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKST
FRIDAY. 


* WIND: SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-031800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110203T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
423 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

CVP

754 
WWAK77 PAJK 031740
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
840 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

AKZ018-031845-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-110203T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
840 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ027-040115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.110204T0000Z-110204T1300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
840 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM AKST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-040115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.110204T0600Z-110204T1300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
840 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
AKST FRIDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT RAIN CONTINUES. A 980 MB LOW WEST OF
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
STEADILY NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE NE GULF SW OF YAKUTAT BY THIS EVENING THEN CURVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH
INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

 RADAR SHOWING A DECENT BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH WITH RAINFALL RATES NEARING ONE QUARTER INCH PER
HOUR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
FRONT IS NOW VISIBLE TO SW. RAIN WILL MODERATE MOST AREAS TODAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SEVERAL 2 INCH BULLS EYES OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES TODAY AND OVER CENTRAL COAST LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVE. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES OTHER THAN LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER DUE TO SNOW BLOCKED DRAINS.

 WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PANHANDLE AS SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
RE-ORIENTS GRADIENTS. WINDS ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN THIRD HAVE
BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AS FRONT APPROACHES AND HAVE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS OCCURRING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND NOT EASE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOLID
GALES ACROSS ALL EASTERN GULF...CLARENCE STRAIT...AND CROSS SOUND
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SMCR ARE ISSUED FOR REMAINDER INNER
CHANNELS. ADD GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVE. WILL SEE A GENERAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH BUT SPEED SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SMCR LEVELS. EXPECT LARGE SEAS TODAY WITH WINDS AND
BUILDING SLY SWELL AND COULD REACH 20 FT THIS EVENING.

 TEMPERATURES AREA PROBABLY NEAR MAXIMUMS NOW AND WILL START TO
SEE GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE PRECIP ALL RAIN EXCEPT
FOR WHITE PASS WHERE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 2500 FEET TONIGHT AND
COULD PICK UP 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. MORE SIG COOLING LOOKS TO
OCCUR JUST AFTER SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

 .LONG TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
CONCERNS A LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AT ONLY 36 HOURS AWAY IS
DISCOURAGING. THE 06Z GFS AND THE 00Z UKMET ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND THE WEAKEST. THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE MAP FASTEST AND IS ON PAR WITH THE GFS FOR INTENSITY. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOT VERY GOOD AT ALL IN
EITHER THE UKMET OR THE ECMWF. NO EASY CHOICES. BASED ON A
SUPERIOR INITIALIZATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND JET
STRENGTH/INTENSITY...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR GUIDANCE AND
UPDATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND FIELD CHANGED
SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT OF THIS CHOICE...BUT LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE POP FIELD.

 DID...HOWEVER...MAKE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPS THAN WHAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. ONLY NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BETWEEN 20 AND 50 PERCENT TOWARDS MODEL FORECASTS...BUT THIS
STILL RESULTED IN 5 TO 7 DEGREES CHANGES. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE SOME MORE SNOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
MODEL DISPARITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL AS FAIRLY
LARGE CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052.

&&

MM/FRITSCH