Gale Warning 88, NWS Juneau, AK

991 
FZAK67 PAJK 021245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY AND TURN NORTHWEST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
133 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLICATED MESS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HRS AS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE ERN GULF
AND SE AK. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU
THE ERN INNER CHANNELS AND WILL BE E OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ERN GULF THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE THRU SE AK BY LATE TONIGHT. MOST IMPORTANT
SYSTEM WILL BE A DEVELOPING LOW THAT MOVES NWD INTO THE E-CENTRAL
GULF WED. ENDED UP USING A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS
FOR THE TONIGHT AND WED PERIODS...MAINLY DUE TO WAY THE ECMWF
HANDLES THAT WED LOW.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT
THRU MOST OF THE AREA...WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FAR NRN LYNN CANAL AND PAGY WILL LIKELY BE
WINDIEST AREAS TONIGHT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WITH GALE FORCE
S-SW WINDS LIKELY THERE...AND AM KEEPING THE PAGY WIND ADVY GOING
THRU 5 AM WED. THERE MAY BE A SMALL BAND OF GALES WITH THE WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF TONIGHT...BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE ERN GULF AREA SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS TONIGHT. GALES ARE
MORE CERTAIN OVER THE ERN GULF WED AS THE LOW MOVES NWD...AND
WILL BE ISSUING NEW WIND ADVYS FOR THE CENTRAL/SRN COASTAL AREAS
AND PAKT ZONE FOR MUCH OF DAYTIME WED. AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW
INTENSITY MAY BE UNDERDONE A BIT IN THE FORECAST...AND IF SO
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND AREA OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS.

 OTHERWISE...WITH ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE PERIOD AT LEAST PERIODIC
RAIN SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT..WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WED WITH THE LOW MOVING IN. LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PAYA AREA WHERE MOST DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE LOWER
LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THRU WED SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES IN LOWER LEVELS. MAY NOT SEE MUCH
DROP IN TEMPS TONIGHT...IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY WARM A
FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH SCALE OF THE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
DOMAIN IS RELATIVELY LARGE...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOT IMPROVED
MUCH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. DUE TO THE ONGOING HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY AND LOW LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY...FORECAST STRATEGY
WOULD BETTER GO WITH A PERSISTENCE. 50/50 BLENDING OF THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WOULD MAINTAIN A MAXIMUM
CONTINUITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FROM DAY 5 THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE HPC OUTPUT WILL BE USED DUE TO ITS HEAVIER
WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH POOR AGREEMENT...MODELS STILL
HINT A DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

 IN GENERAL...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALMOST EVERY OTHER
DAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST DOMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIODS. RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION AT
THE SEA LEVEL EXCEPT NORTHERN MOST AREAS WHERE OCCASIONAL SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST WILL DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH UPCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE PERIODS. SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ023-028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-034-035.

&&

RWT/AHN