Gale Warning 106, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT RAIN CONTINUES. A 980 MB LOW WEST OF
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
STEADILY NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE NE GULF SW OF YAKUTAT BY THIS EVENING THEN CURVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH
INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

 RADAR SHOWING A DECENT BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH WITH RAINFALL RATES NEARING ONE QUARTER INCH PER
HOUR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
FRONT IS NOW VISIBLE TO SW. RAIN WILL MODERATE MOST AREAS TODAY
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SEVERAL 2 INCH BULLS EYES OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES TODAY AND OVER CENTRAL COAST LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVE. DO
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES OTHER THAN LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER DUE TO SNOW BLOCKED DRAINS.

 WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PANHANDLE AS SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
RE-ORIENTS GRADIENTS. WINDS ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN THIRD HAVE
BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AS FRONT APPROACHES AND HAVE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS OCCURRING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND NOT EASE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOLID
GALES ACROSS ALL EASTERN GULF...CLARENCE STRAIT...AND CROSS SOUND
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SMCR ARE ISSUED FOR REMAINDER INNER
CHANNELS. ADD GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVE. WILL SEE A GENERAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH BUT SPEED SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SMCR LEVELS. EXPECT LARGE SEAS TODAY WITH WINDS AND
BUILDING SLY SWELL AND COULD REACH 20 FT THIS EVENING.

 TEMPERATURES AREA PROBABLY NEAR MAXIMUMS NOW AND WILL START TO
SEE GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE PRECIP ALL RAIN EXCEPT
FOR WHITE PASS WHERE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 2500 FEET TONIGHT AND
COULD PICK UP 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. MORE SIG COOLING LOOKS TO
OCCUR JUST AFTER SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

 .LONG TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
CONCERNS A LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AT ONLY 36 HOURS AWAY IS
DISCOURAGING. THE 06Z GFS AND THE 00Z UKMET ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND THE WEAKEST. THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE MAP FASTEST AND IS ON PAR WITH THE GFS FOR INTENSITY. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOT VERY GOOD AT ALL IN
EITHER THE UKMET OR THE ECMWF. NO EASY CHOICES. BASED ON A
SUPERIOR INITIALIZATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND JET
STRENGTH/INTENSITY...OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR GUIDANCE AND
UPDATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND FIELD CHANGED
SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT OF THIS CHOICE...BUT LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE POP FIELD.

 DID...HOWEVER...MAKE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPS THAN WHAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. ONLY NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BETWEEN 20 AND 50 PERCENT TOWARDS MODEL FORECASTS...BUT THIS
STILL RESULTED IN 5 TO 7 DEGREES CHANGES. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE SOME MORE SNOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
MODEL DISPARITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL AS FAIRLY
LARGE CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-052.

&&

MM/FRITSCH