Small Craft Advisory 522, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...LAST NIGHT'S WEATHER FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DROPPING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS IT
WENT THROUGH. SOME NOTABLE RAIN FALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS ARE 3.70 INCHES AT SHELTER COVE, 3.49 AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT,
1.65 AT HAINES AIRPORT, AND 1.15 AT YAKUTAT AIRPORT. THE HEAVIER
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LEAVING
ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE RAIN STILL LINGERS IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH.

AREA RIVERS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART REMAINED BELOW BANKFULL. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION AT THIS TIME IS THE TAIYA RIVER WHICH HAS CRESTED
AT 16.15 FT, JUST BARELY ABOVE BANKFULL LEVEL OF 16 FT. THE SOUTH
MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS A RICH MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL GOING
TO BE PRESENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY ARE ON THE WAY
DOWN AT THE MOMENT. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO LET
THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 22, 23, 24, 26, AND 27 EXPIRE AT 5
AM. THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR 20, 21, AND 25 WERE CANCELLED AT 5 AM
FOR THE SAME REASON. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS STILL REMAIN IN
WRANGELL, AND HYDABURG. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN UP UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR YAKUTAT AND KETCHIKAN AS WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 40
MPH IN SOME PARTS OF THOSE ZONES. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT PROMOTES MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE
STEADY RAIN THAT MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THERE. THEREFOR
HAVE KEPT STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THIS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
MINOR DIFFERENCE NOTED. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE
EC FOR FORECAST UPDATES TONIGHT DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ABOUT 160W WILL BE DEEPENING AS
AS COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE DIGGING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
TO LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. STRONG JETS STREAM FLOW ABOUT THE
TROUGH ARE 130 TO 150KT. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT INTO THE
WEEKEND THE TROUGH IS BREAKING DOWN AND WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA.

THE GENERAL TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
PERSISTS AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

THROUGH THE WEEK CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO THE LONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CONTINUED ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WATERS (CROSS SOUND TO
CAPE SUCKLING) THAT MAY BE ONSHORE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH THERE WILL A
SLOW LESSENING OF SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY OR SO
AND LOWERING AS IT MOVES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-032-034-035-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-033-041>043-053.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK