Gale Warning 262, NWS Juneau, AK

954 
FZAK67 PAJK 061831 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1031 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-070115-
1031 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 962 MB LOW E OF KODIAK WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO
985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-070115-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1031 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

729 
FZAK67 PAJK 062325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-071400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH WED. A 975 MB LOW OVER KODIAK
WILL TRACK W AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 995 MB OVER AK PENINSULA
THROUGH WED NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-071400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 

...GALE WARNING FOR WESTERN HALF THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...WESTERN HALF...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING
TO 25 KT LATE. EASTERN HALF...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

614 
FZAK67 PAJK 071132
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080100-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW OVER THE AK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 995 MB
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SPREAD NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-080100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2011 

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A LOW...ABOUT
985 MB...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY PLACES. STORM FORCE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AND SOLID
GALES OVER REST OF THE OUTER WATERS AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
ROUGH SEAS BUILD UP TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW DEEPENING TO ABOUT
955 MB SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK TONIGHT...THEN TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SHELIKOF STRAIT AND WEAKEN TO ABOUT 985 MB
OVER ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
USED THE GFS TO REFRESH THE EXISTING GRIDS AND MAINTAINED WIND
ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE INHERITED. BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY INCREASES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS AND OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS. INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

 LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE SLOWLY RESPONDED TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THE WATER LEVELS HIGHER AND A FEW OF THE STREAMS AND RIVERS
MAY REACH TO ACTION STAGES BY TUESDAY MORNING. STREAMS AND RIVERS
LIKELY TO RISE THEIR BANK FULL STAGE WILL BE STANEY CREEK...THE
UPPER EARL WEST...AND TO A SMALL EXTENT MONTANA CREEK AND CHILKAT
RIVERS. REFRESHED THE RIVER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF MUDSLIDES.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
THEN THERE IS SOME RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LATEST 12Z EC HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS LARGE SPREADS
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT THE MEAN HAVE A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS THERE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. USED A BLEND OF THE EC/GFS THROUGH WED
NIGHT THEN UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH HPC GUIDANCE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A DEEP UPPER TOF OVER THE
STATE AND EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT ENERGY ALONG WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SE
GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE STRONG LOW NEAR KODIAK
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT W FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED. OVER THE PANHANDLE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKEN BY WED EVENING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
CAT TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WITH
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING THEN THEY WILL BECOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THE LAKE OF MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF FREDRICK
SOUND AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POINTED AND MULTIPLE
DEVELOPING WAVES RAIN WILL REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP RIVER AND STREAMS ELEVATED WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WILL
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN OVER
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL ALSO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION TO NORTHERN LYNN WHERE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
BY WED AFTERNOON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ024-026-027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ020-021-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-053.

&&

AHN/ABJ