Small Craft Advisory 902, NWS Anchorage, AK

915 
FZAK52 PAFC 120046
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 966 MB LOW 260 NM WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE INTO SIBERIA MON
MORNING. A 996 MB LOW 750 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 954
MB 60 NM SOUTH OF ADAK MON AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 240 NM WEST OF
SAINT PAUL TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-121500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-121500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-121500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 13 FT PORT MOLLER E. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT EXCEPT 10 FT PORT MOLLER E. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-121500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-121500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-121500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 65 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SEAS 24 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 70 KT...SEAS 27 FT
BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-121500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-121500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-121500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IT IS BERING PUSHED EASTWARD BY
THE WESTERN STORM.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WHICH IS
VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A STRONG 300 MB JET IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN TURNS NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS THE EC AND NAM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PERIODS BUT BEGIN TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE GFS BEGINS TO DEVIATE FROM ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS BY
LATE TONIGHT AND HAS BEEN TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. WE WILL BE USING THE
NAM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SWITCH TO THE EC FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY SOUTHWARD
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 60 MILES WEST OF
KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO SIBERIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB NEAR
ADAK MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
FRONT, OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST END OF TURNAGAIN TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT THEN BECOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE
RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODEL ARE IN TERRIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
TO BE HIGHLY SUSPECT. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EC MODEL
AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY
THEN WEAK AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. NEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW
PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT. BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 175 176
         GALE 125 129 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1050 PM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

AKZ101-111000-

...STRONG WEATHER FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS IMPACTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS NIGHT
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
TOWN...WINDS HAVE REMAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THE
EXCEPTION IS A STRETCH OF THE GLENN HIGHWAY NEAR THE WEIGH STATION
WHERE WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS PICKING UP SNOW AND BLOWING IT AROUND RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
ANCHORAGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AB DEC 11