Gale Warning 926, NWS Anchorage, AK

351 
FZAK62 PAFC 120038
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 966 MB LOW NEAR 63N 180 WILL MOVE INTO SIBERIA MON MORNING. A 996
MB LOW NEAR 42N 170E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 954 MB NEAR 51N 177W MON
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO NEAR 57N 177W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W
OF 176W. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 20
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W OF 176W...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF 176W...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 19
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IT IS BERING PUSHED EASTWARD BY
THE WESTERN STORM.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WHICH IS
VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A STRONG 300 MB JET IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN TURNS NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS THE EC AND NAM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PERIODS BUT BEGIN TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE GFS BEGINS TO DEVIATE FROM ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS BY
LATE TONIGHT AND HAS BEEN TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. WE WILL BE USING THE
NAM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SWITCH TO THE EC FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY SOUTHWARD
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 60 MILES WEST OF
KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO SIBERIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB NEAR
ADAK MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
FRONT, OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST END OF TURNAGAIN TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT THEN BECOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE
RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODEL ARE IN TERRIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
TO BE HIGHLY SUSPECT. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EC MODEL
AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY
THEN WEAK AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. NEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW
PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT. BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 175 176
         GALE 125 129 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1050 PM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

AKZ101-111000-

...STRONG WEATHER FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS IMPACTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS NIGHT
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
TOWN...WINDS HAVE REMAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THE
EXCEPTION IS A STRETCH OF THE GLENN HIGHWAY NEAR THE WEIGH STATION
WHERE WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS PICKING UP SNOW AND BLOWING IT AROUND RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
ANCHORAGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AB DEC 11