High Wind Watch 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

988 
WWAK71 PAFC 111826
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
926 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
INTO WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND
MONDAY MORNING.

AKZ135-120730-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0037.111212T0300Z-111212T1400Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0050.111212T0000Z-111212T0900Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
926 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...EAST WINDS 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AKST
  TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER.
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IT IS BERING PUSHED EASTWARD BY
THE WESTERN STORM.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WHICH IS
VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A STRONG 300 MB JET IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN TURNS NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS THE EC AND NAM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PERIODS BUT BEGIN TO HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE GFS BEGINS TO DEVIATE FROM ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS BY
LATE TONIGHT AND HAS BEEN TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. WE WILL BE USING THE
NAM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN SWITCH TO THE EC FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE WEATHER FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY SOUTHWARD
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 60 MILES WEST OF
KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THEN INTO SIBERIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB NEAR
ADAK MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
FRONT, OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY THIS
EVENING THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST END OF TURNAGAIN TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY WILL BECOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT THEN BECOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE
RAIN AND WIND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODEL ARE IN TERRIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
TO BE HIGHLY SUSPECT. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EC MODEL
AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY
THEN WEAK AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. NEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW
PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT. BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT.
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 175 176
         GALE 125 129 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 11