Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

548 
FZAK51 PAFC 160015
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DEVELOP INTO A
999 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF KAYAK ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH MON.
$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

292 
FZAK51 PAFC 161249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DEVELOPS INTO 
A 997 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF KAYAK ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON THEN 
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES MON. A 1010 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF ALASKA MON THEN MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY TUE.  
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND INCREASING 
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 9 FT S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW WIND 20 KT S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING 
TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE AND FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH ABOUT 36 HRS SEEM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. IT APPEARS
THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER AFTER THIS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER CANADA WHICH MOVES
WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SAT.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS CENTER INCREASES ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS IN FROM WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND
SAT. THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES WEST AND NORTH
WHILE A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS OVER BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVES ALONG THE NORTH GULF SUN NIGHT.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...COLD AND LOCALLY BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THOMPSON PASS
THROUGH SAT MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SAT MORNING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS COLD AIR AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING IN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...EARLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT...COLD ADVECTION SPREADS IN AT
LOWER LEVELS...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS AND
POTENTIALLY PUSH TO WARNING LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN SAT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GENERALLY DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY MARINE AREA
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AK PEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEAK WAVES WILL HOLD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. STRONG FRONT
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND WESTERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF WARM
AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 111. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES 131 AND 145.
MARINE...GALES 126 127 128 130 132 140 150 185
         HEAVY SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 11