Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

210 
FZAK51 PAFC 150230 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
530 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

UPDATED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING THEN A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF UP OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA BY SUN MORNING. A 993 LOW FORMS 90 NM SW OF YAKUTAT BY SUN
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE DURING 
THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
530 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JAM JAN 11

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE AND FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH ABOUT 36 HRS SEEM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. IT APPEARS
THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER AFTER THIS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER CANADA WHICH MOVES
WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SAT.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS CENTER INCREASES ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS IN FROM WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND
SAT. THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES WEST AND NORTH
WHILE A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS OVER BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVES ALONG THE NORTH GULF SUN NIGHT.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...COLD AND LOCALLY BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THOMPSON PASS
THROUGH SAT MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SAT MORNING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS COLD AIR AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING IN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...EARLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT...COLD ADVECTION SPREADS IN AT
LOWER LEVELS...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS AND
POTENTIALLY PUSH TO WARNING LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN SAT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GENERALLY DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY MARINE AREA
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AK PEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEAK WAVES WILL HOLD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. STRONG FRONT
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND WESTERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF WARM
AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 111. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES 131 AND 145.
MARINE...GALES 126 127 128 130 132 140 150 185
         HEAVY SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 11