Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE AND FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH ABOUT 36 HRS SEEM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. IT APPEARS
THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER AFTER THIS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE 500 MB LOW CENTER OVER CANADA WHICH MOVES
WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SAT.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THIS CENTER INCREASES ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS IN FROM WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND
SAT. THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES WEST AND NORTH
WHILE A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS OVER BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVES ALONG THE NORTH GULF SUN NIGHT.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...COLD AND LOCALLY BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THOMPSON PASS
THROUGH SAT MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SAT MORNING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS COLD AIR AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING AND SAT MORNING IN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...EARLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT...COLD ADVECTION SPREADS IN AT
LOWER LEVELS...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE TO ENHANCE THE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS AND
POTENTIALLY PUSH TO WARNING LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN SAT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GENERALLY DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY MARINE AREA
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AK PEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEAK WAVES WILL HOLD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. STRONG FRONT
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MOVE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND AND WESTERN ALASKA ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF WARM
AIR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 111. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES 131 AND 145.
MARINE...GALES 126 127 128 130 132 140 150 185
         HEAVY SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 140 141 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 11