Gale Warning 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

026 
FZAK61 PAFC 192356
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB NEAR 57N 150W
SUN AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO NEAR 59N 147W AT 970 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SOUTH OF 56N...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NORTH OF 56N...E WIND 35 KT. SOUTH OF 56N...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

597 
FZAK61 PAFC 201245
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 982 MB LOW NEAR 56N 151W
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB NEAR 55N 145W LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE TO 59N 145W AT 962 MB LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

256 
FZAK61 PAFC 202350
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 56N 149W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB NEAR 55N 143W
MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE MON EVENING. A 977 MB LOW NEAR 55N
138W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB NEAR 58N 143W MON AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
TO NEAR 59N 149W AT 964 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 148W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 148W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW LIES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IS MOVING NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.
A MODERATE 300 MB JET CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR CAPE
LISBURNE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE MAIN
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET IS
SUPPORTING THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUND AND THROUGH THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA.

A BROAD MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BROUGHT AREAS OF SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND TO BRISTOL BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
FROM THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOTHER
RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SIMILAR TO THE UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR KISKA
HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS
THE PREFERRED MODEL BECAUSE IT HAS THE BEST CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER JET OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS AROUND THE SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW
MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KING SALMON AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST WILL BECOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

THE LARGE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SATURDAY THEN TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS UNIMAK ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST, BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SPREADS SNOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING THEN DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND SNOW WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INNTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW AS THE OLD LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 179 180
         STORM 185
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 11